It should go without saying that the first point is definitely health.
Staying up late has become the norm; the traders you see look older. Checking physical health shows that organs age faster than their peers...
Being carefree is also key, of course, not in the way you imagine it as indulging in pleasures, but more about allowing yourself to go out and breathe fresh air to relax your mind, yet ultimately still not getting into the right state. There is a kind of anxiety in my heart that prevents me from relaxing, because those who trust us are slowly increasing. Every day I need to organize market news, summarize and reflect; at least that's how it is for me, the news is never fully addressed.
Pressure: Some ask me why I look at the market all day? Contracts are generally operated with heavy short positions, requiring constant attention; those who know it understand that I notify everyone about my entries and exits.
Let me share my trading principles:
Goodbye feelings, trading respects the market sentiment
2. Strictly set stop loss levels; the stop loss level must consider market conditions and your acceptable loss.
3. Stick to your original view; if wrong, pay the price.
Trading is not about who makes more, but who goes further.
Finally, I hope everyone who comes across this article can conquer their own humanity because trading is a battle against human nature~
The way to profit
What is called fundamental or technical analysis and various analyses are only for validation, not for serious prediction.
Never believe in predictions (I think it’s better not to guess; scientific predictions or speculations are still acceptable)—because predictions have too many subjective biases. Predictions represent an illusory future, and they are a concentration of fear. Predictions essentially represent uncertainty, so don’t trust any analysis. Price movements either go up or down, indicating that you should learn to trade either long or short (this statement is a bit absolute; the way prices move must first determine the cycle. Within a defined time cycle, we say the price movement can be categorized into upward trends—adjustment—new highs, or downward trends—adjustment—new lows. 2. Turning points: under conditions of upward trends—adjustment—upward cannot reach new highs—turns into new lows within the cycle, thus transitioning to a downward trend, or downward—adjustment—downward cannot reach new lows—turns into new highs within the cycle, thus transitioning to an upward trend.
To achieve non-action without action
Can you drive? If not! Can you walk? Yes! That’s enough. To reach a destination, you first need to discover the road, then you can either drive or walk on it; don’t just wander around aimlessly. Remember, you are not here to create a path by hitting and missing; instead, you must see the existing road and walk along it to reach your destination (that metaphor is very good). Placing a trade means first seeing the market and subsequently following it—this is not about being the first to act, nor is it about predicting or fantasizing in advance. You must follow and react, then let the market lead you along a path, and you will profit.
How far can the market go? I don't know. How long does the market need to run before it corrects? I don't know either! Just wait (you've hit the nail on the head). This way, you'll make fewer mistakes. If you start predicting the distance or duration of prices, or lose patience, worrying about missing profits and exiting too early, then you've left the road, and you'll fall into roadside traps. At this moment or the next, you're bound to make mistakes, and they will be significant (this is crucial, please remember it repeatedly).
About holding positions
Holding positions is unrelated to time; it has very little correlation with the distance of price movements. If there is, it is to see whether the boundaries of price movements have reached or are about to cross. The boundaries of price movements are quite easy to identify. In charts of 15 minutes or more, the high and low points from yesterday and previous days are mostly marked, as well as the boundaries of major moving averages. Just draw some lines yourself, and it will be clear. Don’t overthink and doubt; candlestick movements are that simple, yet you complicate them and confuse yourself, which leads to losses.
Holding positions is also unrelated to your patience, personal emotions, and psychological activities, including your expectations or doubts! If they are related, you are already beginning to lose.
Think carefully about how you drive or walk. Can’t figure it out? Then just hit the road, thinking about the relationship between your legs, the road, and the destination while you walk. Taking steps is your trading behavior; the road is the path and direction of price movements; the destination is the boundary of price movements, which is also the endpoint of your trading profits (it’s important to note that in life, the destination is always known in advance, but the destination of price movements is best not to know in advance; just follow). Walk a bit and imagine who comes first, who comes last, and who regulates whose behavior.
Do not rush to take steps too early, nor worry about predators lurking behind. Price movements will have a process of paths—trends. Trends are a combination of distance and time, but this is a dynamic process. The size of the trend (to determine within what weekly timeframe) cannot be predefined or prematurely analyzed with time and price differences; at least, this is true for the vast majority of market movements.
Moreover, traders do not need to make preconceived judgments. In fact, following the market is the correct trading.
Moreover, holding positions is unrelated to price differences and time differences. If you align with the market, won't you profit? Must you earn a specific amount of dollars or have exact data on how long you hold the position to be satisfied? That is neither possible nor necessary. Don’t worry about the size of the trend or profit; just follow the market.
The simplicity of profit lies in just following price movements instead of fighting against them. The direction of the market has nothing to do with you; if you confront it, will it care about you? So, if you get it wrong, you should get used to turning around easily. But most people at this moment are burdened with heavy worries, unable to turn around, leading to tragic losses.
Value accumulation
Traders must also pay attention to the significant meaning of accumulation. 'A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step', 'Many grains of sand make a tower' are all saying that the results of accumulation will be enormous. The same goes for financial trading; market trends are driven by each major wave and minor wave corrections. Do not think that there is significance in entering and exiting with every fluctuation; in reality, what matters is that you hold your position without moving, at most adding a light position after the trend recovers, rather than making continuous mistakes due to speculative psychological fluctuations.
The big trend is composed of several small trends; you must hold positions patiently and wait, holding on to the larger trend; likewise, if you repeatedly enter and exit, you will make more mistakes, and the cumulative losses will become substantial. If you want to recover, you will also need to increase your ability to double your efforts.
From a positive perspective, the significant meaning of accumulation lies in the compound interest on your holdings. Compound interest has immense power, but it also comes from spiritual freedom and maintaining a state of non-action.
Imagine, if you are not heavily invested in seeking quick riches, taking risks, or gambling short trades, but can consistently trade lightly and follow the market, then with such price differences rolling and accumulating over time, your profits will also continue to grow. When encountering a clear market, you can add positions to continue following; through the number of positions held following the trend, price differences, and the accumulation of time, even if you always trade with light positions proportionately, you can still achieve significant gains.
On the contrary, those who wish to achieve wealth through reckless trading positions, heavily investing, frequently gambling short, and being overly focused on immediate gains without understanding the various specific conditions that may change at any moment, lack any coping ability. They will inevitably face severe consequences similar to driving recklessly with a lucky mindset, such as speeding or running a red light, leading to significant losses. Desire harms people, and such consequences typically result in devastation, leaving nothing. By the time you deeply regret it, it will be too late.Seeing mountains as mountains, seeing water as water
Seeing mountains not as mountains, seeing water not as water
Seeing mountains as mountains, seeing water as water
This is the interpretation of the three realms of life from Buddhism, and trading is similar. From the very beginning, when entering the market, one can only foolishly watch the candlesticks rise and fall. Then, realizing that candlesticks can't earn money, slowly adding various indicators, more and more, until after being tempered by the market, only one or two indicators that one is best at remain, or even just using naked candlesticks to trade. This is an inevitable experience for traders and also an elevation of one’s realm.
The realm of using indicators
Many investors like to trade using indicators. Although indicators are generally lagging, they have one significant advantage: they are easy to quantify, for example, moving averages make it relatively simple and objective to see trends, and can automatically delineate price zones for bulls and bears.
Similarly, indicators can be used very differently by traders at various levels, just like after practicing a martial art, learning swordsmanship is vastly different for someone with no martial arts foundation.
Those who can properly utilize indicators can reach a point where they can roughly know the position of the indicators without looking at them, just like when I used moving averages and MACD. In the end, even without looking at the moving averages, I knew the trend of bulls and bears, and could even guess which moving average the price was being suppressed by. I had a similar experience with MACD divergences, and later, even without looking at MACD, I knew which price level must have diverged. This is not coincidence or talent; it’s simply due to prolonged use.
When you finally use indicators, you will start to re-understand and reassess the market price because you know the market always repeats familiar trend types. However, some situations will always go wrong. Over time, you may find that although it aligns with the indicators, the candlestick trends are obviously different from the correct orders. From this point, you will start to consider the essence of market candlesticks.
Naked Candlestick: The closest to the essence of the market
In a sense, candlesticks are also a kind of indicator because they are the outcome of price calculations on the market. They are just closer to the market itself compared to other indicators, which is why we do not refer to candlesticks or trading volume as indicators.
Why do many experts use naked candlesticks? Is it because they are naturally inclined to them? Is this a coincidence? In fact, it is not that experts like to use naked candlesticks, but because those who can be called experts have often gone through the stage of using indicators and finally discovered that naked candlesticks are the most useful. Just as players seem taller when playing sports, it’s not because they play basketball that they become tall; rather, those who are taller have an advantage and are more likely to be selected for the team.
The information from the market itself is almost all displayed on naked candlesticks; it's just whether we have the eye to discover it. This straightforward expression makes many feel that the charts are not sophisticated enough, lacking the colorful indicators that make it look professional. However, in the eyes of true experts, this is the most natural and beautiful pattern.
Some like to wear heavy makeup, some prefer light makeup, and some like a natural look. Naked candlestick is a natural look, a pure expression of the market itself.
The crowd and psychology behind the price
For beginners, naked candlesticks are just ordinary candlesticks, but for experts, they are not just candlesticks; they reflect the psychological performance of investors and the distribution of chips behind the price.
The price itself is actually not that important. Remembering the price every day helps analysts, but it doesn't matter much to traders. Because we look at price trends to see the psychological feedback from the market crowd and the distribution of chips. When we look at the candlestick chart, what really comes back is the contest between bulls and bears, the distribution of funds, and the feelings of investors—joy and collapse.
To quickly improve your sensitivity to candlesticks, you need to think more about the principles and logic behind candlesticks, close your eyes, listen carefully to the voices of bulls and bears, and feel the breath of the market.
Naked Candlestick Trading Method
Today, let's talk about the naked candlestick trading method. The so-called naked candlestick refers to the candlestick chart without a moving average system. Switching to a naked candlestick is simple; just enter MA in the main chart, confirm it to close the moving average system, then enter MA and confirm it again to switch back. The essence of the naked candlestick trading method is the breakout of the trend line during a certain operating period, displayed in the form of a large cycle candlestick combined with a small amount of innovative supplements, evolving into the naked candlestick trading method. Once you are skilled, you don't need to draw lines or any technical indicators to find suitable entry points!
In addition, everyone understands how to draw trend lines; the breaking point of trend lines generally indicates a reversal, and then you can more accurately select the entry point. Whether to profit is a temporary concern, but fundamentally, the risks are significantly reduced. Therefore, this method is often regarded as a simple yet powerful weapon.
1. 【Trend Line】 This chart shows a downward trend in a certain period, which is the most common trend we encounter. We can find each rebound high point in the downward trend and connect them to get the upper boundary of a downward channel (i.e., the blue line in the chart).
【Breakout】 In the chart, the 5th grid shows a breakout; when the trendline is broken, it's a signal of a reversal. Note that it's just a signal, which means that although there is a breakout, the risk level has not yet reached the standard worthy of our intervention. We must see that the trend really wants to go up before we follow.
【Consolidation】 What does it mean to be 'willing to go up'? For the trend to reverse, it must first consolidate. (Of course, there are some special cases where strong V-shaped reversals occur, but such reversals are actually rare; I always suggest that it’s better not to chase V-shaped reversals.) After consolidation comes the choice—up or down? Here, there will be a phenomenon of the moving direction of the consolidation, or the moving direction of the consolidation's center of gravity. The two yellow lines in the chart represent the range of consolidation, and it is especially important to note that this consolidation range should only be drawn after you see the trend breaking through the trend line! How to draw it? As long as it includes most of the overlapping areas of the trend, that’s basically fine, but don’t miss some important highs and lows!
4. 【Upward Movement】 We have derived an overlapping consolidation area (not knowing if it’s really a turning point). After this, we need to observe whether this consolidation leads to an upward movement. How to determine if it’s upward? Like this chart: as long as the retest after the breakout stabilizes above the centerline of the consolidation, it is considered upward! It’s that simple; thus, the previous determination of the consolidation area becomes crucial. If this step is done well, the risks will be greatly reduced. Furthermore, upward movements are visible; we do not need to guess!
【Stop Loss】 Finally, there's the stop loss. We can set it at the bottom of the consolidation. Because the market's movement does not change due to personal will, the trend may immediately fall back below the center of consolidation after moving up, which does not mean we are wrong, but is due to some unforeseen reasons that the market chooses to continue downwards. So just calmly stop loss, the only reason is: we have done what we should do, there is no need to doubt our skills, nor to question or resist the market!
The primary winning rule in crypto trading is to wait patiently while being out of position.
The hardest part of trading in the crypto world is waiting while being out of position. In the investment field, as long as you have patience and learn to wait, you will definitely benefit, especially in crypto trading. Calmly waiting will lead you to a good price, a very good entry point, but people often chase immediate benefits, fearing they might miss out on a fortune. However, in real life, many retail investors cannot tolerate waiting; the wait is too long to bear.
If you cannot endure, it is advisable to find other things to do, engage more with nature, flowers, and plants, enrich yourself, and forget about that 24/7 trading mindset.
Entering the crypto world, regardless of how high your emotional or intellectual quotient is, without patience, will ultimately lead to total failure and a terrible outcome. Most of them have unstable personalities and emotions, which can easily reveal their bad temper in the market, leading to unstable mental states and distorted operations.
If you think you are unlucky during the investment process in the crypto world, feeling terrible and always making mistakes, consider going out for a walk. Good luck often comes from walking. Nature can absorb the negative energy of investors and soothe the mind, becoming a source of personal vitality.
Waiting, patience, and being out of position greatly test a person's character. Based on countless data statistics from predecessors in the market, this set of data has been derived.
1. Trading more than 10 times a day results in an average return rate of -79.2% over 3 years. 2. Trading more than 5 times a day results in an average return rate of -55% over 3 years. 3. Trading more than once a day results in an average return rate of -31.5%; 4. Trading more than 0.3 times a day results in an average return rate of 12%; 5. Trading 0.1 times a day results in an average return rate of 59%; 6. More than 90% of people lose money in trading, which shows how difficult it is to reduce trading frequency. In a constantly changing magical market, doing nothing is very hard.
The insights of veteran traders in the crypto world. True traders only care about two things: how to act when the price movement proves they were right after buying, and how to act when the price movement proves they were wrong after buying. Trading opportunities are not always present, so patience is especially important. Patiently being out of position, waiting for the trend and timing. Patiently holding positions, waiting for the trend to complete. Patiently accumulating, as compound interest is the way to success. Patiently learning, as deep accumulation leads to a thin burst.
In the cryptocurrency world, there are only two types of people who make money. The first type is those who can wait patiently while being out of position, waiting for a significant drop, pre-selecting the cryptocurrencies they value, and when the market drops, buying in fully and making a fortune. The second type is value investors, who can buy high-quality coins and hold them for the long term, continuously investing and compounding, allowing compound interest to roll and explode with magic. Achieving both of these points will absolutely outperform 90% of the cryptocurrency market participants who chase rises and falls, saving effort and energy.
When the market develops according to the trader's judgment, there’s no need to do anything, just patiently watch. Therefore, it is essential to understand that trading actions are instantaneous. Throughout the year, in those 365 days, the actual trading time may only amount to a few hours; the rest is long and quiet.
Really waiting
The most important thing in trading is waiting; 99% of the time is spent waiting, and buying and selling only happens in an instant! Waiting with a clear position for opportunities, waiting while holding positions until profits are realized! Waiting for the right time to come! Waiting for opportunities that belong to your trading system and trading model, i.e., buy/sell points. Waiting requires time and patience, so patience is crucial!
Investing in cryptocurrencies requires patience, whether waiting out of position for opportunities or fully invested waiting for increases, it is an inevitable journey. Recognizing that investment is like sowing seeds and not rushing for harvest, understanding that growth takes time makes such waiting reasonable, just as farmers follow natural laws for planting, knowing that sowing and reaping require waiting. Crypto investors who understand market cycles can calmly face waiting and see it as part of the investment process, just as essential and tranquil as daily breathing.
Regarding the current market cycle, there is a pattern: the rhythm of a bull market always starts with a small bull, then goes through a phase of decline and consolidation, and finally welcomes a true bull market. It’s like a marathon: first, a slow warm-up, then a steady run to build up strength, and finally a full sprint!
Currently, the cycle has completed the small bull run, and it may enter a period of consolidation or decline. This phase can last from 4 to 6 months at most, and at least 1 to 2 months, just like a brief storm. Please be patient; after the storm, there will be a brilliant rainbow.
Washing out positions is to climb higher, just like climbing a mountain requires resting.
Looking forward to 200k Bitcoin!!
#SUSHI价格飙升 #加密市场回调 #币安MOVE开盘
$BTC $TROY $CRV
