Absolutely explosive! Tonight's non-farm data will determine the ups and downs!

The non-farm data at 21:30, Goldman Sachs believes, the non-farm employment report to be released on Friday is almost certain to be an event that will affect market direction, allowing investors to trade based on the different outcomes that may arise.

The November non-farm employment report in the United States will be the last important economic data of the year and may determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again during its meeting on December 17-18.

Even though there was some anxiety last month, investors are currently confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by another 25 basis points this month. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the market estimates the probability of a rate cut in December at about 75%, and Federal Reserve officials have also made some dovish or hawkish comments in recent days. However, if an unexpectedly hot number appears in Friday's non-farm report, it could jeopardize expectations for these easing policies and potentially disrupt the stock market.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the U.S. economy to record an increase of 214,000 jobs in November.

John Flood, Head of Americas Equity Sales Trading at Goldman Sachs Global Banking and Markets, said in a report on Tuesday: "I believe the sweet spot for the non-farm numbers in the stock market is between 150,000 and 200,000, as the market is ready for a significant rebound from the poor performance of the non-farm data in October; thus, the adverse factors from those hurricanes and strikes are now behind us."

He continued, "The stock market does not want to see an increase in non-farm payrolls above 275,000 because unexpectedly hot data would provide Powell and his team with the flexibility to maintain a wait-and-see approach in the December meeting (and prompt them to also take a wait-and-see attitude regarding 2025)."

"Yes, we have temporarily returned to a setting where bad data (but not too bad) is actually favorable for the stock market," Goldman said. The bank analyzed six potential trading scenarios that could occur after the non-farm report is released on Friday. Here are the possible outcomes: #非农数据