Macau gambling king Stanley Ho
I once publicly advised against gambling, not because I fear you winning, but because I fear you not coming. Moreover, no one in the He family is good at gambling.
The reason I talk more about stocks and less about the crypto space is that the long-term expectation for the stock market is positive. As long as your method is correct and your thinking is right, you will definitely be able to make money in the long run. In the crypto space, whether it's spot or futures, there will always be a loser, and there will always be someone losing money. The only ones who can profit in the long run are the ones taking a cut, which are the exchanges.
Some people will bring up the comparison of 3,000 points in ten years and 20 million times in ten years. This is meaningless. Do you think if you held onto all the Bitcoin mined in the past ten years you could achieve 20 million times? No, you need a counterparty. In stocks, you don't actually need a counterparty because truly high-quality companies are distributing dividends every year.
The reason so many people like futures is fundamentally gambling. They are betting on which day they can get rich, and this is no different from being in a casino. Because a casino is also a game of existing funds, with counterparties, there will definitely be losers.
The core of gambling lies in setting up a game rule with negative expectations. The crypto space, on the other hand, is a negative-sum game overall.
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It's like the crypto space. Because it has accumulated a large amount of '韮蔡' (chives), such a fertile field of chives that I cannot bear to cut. But I keep my allocation in the crypto space within 10% of all my assets. Once it exceeds 10%, I will sell part of it and buy high-quality assets globally.
What stories, what new technologies, are meaningless. Because the world is a typical narrative economy.
After a narrative ends, some assets will be in disarray, while others can still steadily generate value.
For example, the well-known tulip bubble
This bubble lasted at least thirty years. If we review the price of tulips over these thirty years, it must have been a magnificent long bull market. Entering at any point in time would not lead to losses. But it still cannot change the fact that this game requires a counterparty, which is essentially a negative-sum expectation. Even after the bubble burst, some rare and precious tulips still hold extremely high value. With the continuous improvement of cultivation technology, their prices have returned to normal levels.
Therefore, for any speculative asset, the best approach is to take out a portion whenever you make money and use it to purchase income-generating assets. And strictly control the proportion of this speculative asset. Only in this way can you remain invincible.
Of course, saying these things has already been overdone, and there will definitely be a lot of '韮蔡' feeling uncomfortable and wanting to refute. It doesn't matter. After all, anyone who hints at risks is seen as blocking their financial path, blocking their chance to turn things around, and blocking their ascent to the peak of life.
But I do it this way. Every time my assets exceed 10% or I have made significant profits, thinking it's the end of a bull market, I will sell and buy income-generating assets or save.
Recently, I plan to lay low with a potential coin that is about to explode, doubling is quite simple, and I also plan to find some potential coins to hold until the end of the year, expecting a tenfold increase is not a problem, keep up to eat meat below 999.