According to Deep Tide TechFlow, on December 3, UBS released a research report stating that due to Trump's trade threats against BRICS countries, the dollar index broke through 106, but the current valuation appears to be overly high. Although the outlook for the dollar still seems bright, in the short term, UBS analysts suggest that investors take advantage of the strengthening dollar to reduce their dollar exposure.
Market attention is shifting to key economic events this week, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech on Wednesday and Friday's non-farm payroll data. According to CME data, the market expects a 75% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. NatAlliance Securities' head of international fixed income, Brenner, stated that this data will determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates this month.
Regarding the euro, influenced by the French government's no-confidence vote, the euro fell nearly 0.8% against the dollar on Monday, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly a month. The three-month implied volatility of the euro rose to 8.172%, reaching a two-year high. The yield spread between French and German bonds has risen to a new 12-year high, reflecting growing market concerns over political risks in the eurozone.