Did the U.S. government transfer nearly 20,000 BTC to Coinbase with the intention to sell?
According to on-chain data platform Arkham, the U.S. government has transferred about 19,800 BTC (worth $1.92 billion) to Coinbase Prime, raising market concerns about a possible sell-off. However, this transfer may not be intended for asset sale; here are some key interpretations:
1️⃣ Possibly due to custody needs The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) established a partnership with Coinbase Prime in July this year, aimed at 'protecting and trading' digital assets. This transfer may merely be an asset custody arrangement.
2️⃣ Lack of public announcement on selling plans If the government plans to sell BTC, it usually makes it clear through legal documents. According to court records, in March 2023, the U.S. government sold 9,861 BTC for $216 million, and at that time, it was already planned to sell the remaining assets in four phases throughout the year, but no new announcements have been seen so far.
Therefore, the market does not need to panic excessively; this transfer may not be a selling behavior. Investors can stay alert but need not be overly nervous.
BTC once fell below $95,000
But it is quite coincidental that shortly after the U.S. government transferred a large amount of BTC, Bitcoin dropped to a low of $94,388 around 01:45 this morning. There was a slight rebound before the deadline, currently reported at $95,659, down 2.32% in the past 24 hours.
Does the U.S. government's transfer of BTC always accompany market volatility?
Data shows that the U.S. government transferred Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime three times this year, totaling 15,940 BTC. According to monitoring by Lookonchain, BTC prices dropped about 5% within three days after each transfer:
April: Transferred 2,000 BTC
Mid-June: Transferred 3,940 BTC
Mid-August: Transferred 10,000 BTC, the price dropped on the same day, but then fluctuated and rose again.
Whether this transfer will trigger similar volatility remains to be seen. Market sentiment and subsequent actions may be key factors.
Crossing through the bear market, welcoming the bull market! BTC is hitting $100,000; what will happen to inscriptions and altcoins?
Having endured the darkest moments, BTC is launching an assault towards $100,000. This milestone is significant; I believe the bear market is over, the bull market is coming, and the breakthrough may happen this month. Here are my thoughts:
1️⃣ Is there still a chance for inscriptions?
The pressure from the locked positions during the boom of inscriptions is huge, but I believe there is still a chance for another surge. However, this wave may be relatively short, similar to the rapid rise and fall of meme coins, with consensus coming and going quickly.
2️⃣ When will the altcoin season arrive?
The local altcoin season has begun, and many altcoins have doubled. The real frenzy requires the second (ETH) to lead the charge; its ecological chain effect is unmatched by other coins. I am very optimistic about the overall performance in Q1 next year.
3️⃣ Will a major correction come?
There is a risk of a pullback, and Bitcoin may fall back to around $80,000 after breaking through $100,000. But even if there is a pullback, I would choose to hold on; holding spot gives me more peace of mind.
The bear market is over, the bull market is here, and the future is promising!
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