BTC reached a peak of $99,588 a week ago, and after a week of fluctuations, it attempted to rise again to $98,130 yesterday but retreated unsuccessfully, continuing the pullback.
Hitting $100,000 is just a step away; why has it not broken through yet? Will it break the previous high and go above $100,000 in the last month of 2024?
In fact, BTC has quickly surged from $70,000 to nearly $100,000, pulling the entire cryptocurrency market to a certain height. BTC has successfully ascended to the seventh-largest asset in the world.
This has naturally provided some growth space for altcoins. The current consolidation is also giving various altcoin projects some time for market cap management.
When the price of BTC is high, the opportunities for altcoins to rise naturally increase. Big capital does not want retail investors to compete with them for BTC, at least at this stage.
They hope to wash away some chips below $100,000, so they also need cooperation from altcoin projects to create a small wave of wealth effect in the altcoin market first.
Small investors, seeing BTC's price so high, don't fall from $100,000 to $16,000 in 2023. Aren't you standing at the peak? (This may represent a new investor's view on $100,000.)
Since altcoins are still relatively cheap, mainly because there are more zeros, and there are some coins with wealth creation effects ahead, it is natural to allocate some funds to altcoins.
With the previous surges of Dogecoin and PEPE, and XRP breaking its historical high, altcoins may be about to start a wave.
XRP is an old coin that has increased by 400% in a month, with its market cap surpassing SOL and BNB, directly rising to rank third behind ETH.
This is something no one expected. In fact, it was previously ranked third but was surpassed one by one in recent years due to legal issues and regulatory reasons with the SEC.
However, with Trump's inauguration date approaching, this is a big positive for XRP, as XRP has actively participated in donations to Trump during the election.
The recent surge of XRP over the past month may primarily be related to two news items.
1. XRP's old tree blooms anew; Ripple has been approved to issue the stablecoin RLUSD, launching on December 4.
According to FOX Business, the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) is expected to approve Ripple's issuance of its stablecoin RLUSD.
If approved, Ripple plans to officially launch RLUSD on December 4, a stablecoin aimed at meeting customer demand for low-volatility digital currencies while promoting further development of cross-border payments and remittance transactions.
Previously, Ripple also established the RLUSD advisory board, with members including former FDIC chair Sheila Bair, former JPMorgan executive David Puth, and Ripple co-founder and executive chairman Chris Larsen.
2. WisdomTree has registered an XRP ETF in Delaware.
FOX reporter Eleanor Terrett stated on social media that 'global ETF provider WisdomTree has registered an XRP ETF in Delaware. I have confirmed with the company that this is a legitimate filing.
According to Coingape, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart's latest report indicates that approval decisions for altcoin ETFs such as SOL, XRP, LTC, and HBAR may extend until the end of 2025.
Unlike the already approved Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, these altcoins lack support from a regulated futures market like CME. Although WisdomTree and 21Shares have submitted XRP ETF applications, current regulations still do not allow them to list before addressing issues like market manipulation and custody.
Seyffart also stated that Trump's inauguration is likely to help resolve the XRP and SEC dispute, and the new SEC leadership in 2025 may be more friendly to cryptocurrencies. At that time, it may also allow ETF products to include staking features.
Additionally, Grayscale has opened private placements for multiple tokens to qualified investors, including SOL, SUI, XRP, and a total of 17 tokens.
Stimulated by this series of good news, XRP has returned to the top three in market capitalization, welcoming a second spring.
Currently, old coins like ADA and XRP are leading the rally while established coins are recovering. Is a full altcoin season about to arrive?
The market is still mainly dominated by Bitcoin, while altcoins have not yet fully entered a strong leading position. However, the changing trend over the past seven days is worth noting.
The altcoin season index has gradually climbed from a low point of 17 on the 17th, significantly jumping to 28 on the 21st, indicating that market interest in altcoins is recovering.
This upward trend may suggest that market funds are gradually rotating from mainstream assets like Bitcoin into the altcoin sector.
Especially against the backdrop of strong performances by old altcoins like XRP and ADA recently, this trend may further strengthen.
If this trend can continue and maintain a steady rise over the coming weeks, perhaps the altcoin season will officially arrive.
From the top 100 active altcoins in the past three months, meme coins, due to their high speculation and social drive, still find it difficult to be shaken from their market position in the short term.
The logic of favoring new coins over old ones may now be different; retail investors now tend to prefer meme coins over major coins.
Among major coins, institutions and large funds do not have high return rate requirements, so they choose larger market cap assets. In fact, apart from BTC, the top 10 coins by market cap are all of interest to institutions.
Bitcoin has risen 130% so far this year, mainly driven by the results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election and the halving event in April 2024.
Despite the rise in Bitcoin's price, its dominance is declining. On November 30, 2024, Bitcoin's dominance fell to 56.1%.
This indicates that Bitcoin investors are taking profits and rotating into altcoins, and the altcoin season may be about to begin. If there is a recent pullback, coins like SOL, ETH, PEPE, and DOGE can be added to positions at lower prices. This round of market activity is far from over, and we are still far from the peak of this round.
Remember not to frequently switch assets. Don't be busy like a dog with coins every day. We are here to make money, not just to buy and sell for the thrill.
BTC breaking through $100,000 is just a matter of time; this is likely to happen this month. The longer it consolidates at this level, once it breaks, it could shoot up to around $120,000. By then, BTC below $100,000 may be hard to see again.
Coins are not everything in life; exercise more, love life, and love your current job.
Once the coin layout is well done, don't interfere with it. It needs time to grow, blossom, and bear fruit. Ultimately, you only need to pick it at the right time when the fruit is ripe; there's no need to disturb it every day.
If you don't know where to focus your energy and time on a daily basis, please listen to the advice of a Stanford PhD.
Stanford University mathematics PhD Fred Krueger stated on X.
The advice for the younger generation is: concentrate all your energy on artificial intelligence and simultaneously invest your savings in Bitcoin.
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