Trade War 2.0 Impact:

Significant Event: After Trump took office, the US increased tariffs on Chinese goods.

Impact: The price of Chinese goods in the US has risen, circulation has decreased, and exports have been affected.

Economic Growth Rate Forecast:

Forecast: China's economic growth rate is predicted to decline from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025.

Response Measures: China may implement a policy of renminbi devaluation to offset the impact of high tariffs on export goods.

Outlook for the Chinese Stock Market:

Forecast: Despite the pressure from the trade war, the adverse effects on Chinese corporate profits and market valuations will be alleviated by government policies.

Investment Strategy: Goldman Sachs suggests increasing holdings in Chinese stocks, particularly in the new energy and semiconductor-related industries.

Real Estate Industry Forecast:

Current Situation: The number of new starts, land sales revenue, new home sales, and completed construction site data have all significantly declined.

Forecast: The real estate industry is expected to drag down China's GDP by about 2 percentage points in 2025.

Policy Outlook: If more easing policies are introduced, housing prices in first-tier cities are expected to stabilize.

Domestic Demand Consumption and Employment Rate:

Key Factor: Improving the employment rate is vital for the recovery of consumption in China.

Forecast: In 2025, some labor income in China is expected to rise, job opportunities will increase, and the employment rate will significantly improve.

Debt Resolution and Employment Market Improvement:

Chinese Government Investment: Invested 10 trillion USD to resolve local debts, alleviate pressure on local governments, and promote capital investment and economic recovery.

Company Payment Improvement: Companies undertaking government contracts will see improvements in payment collection.

Consumption Stimulus Policies:

Government Subsidies: The Chinese government provides 300 billion RMB in special subsidies to stimulate consumption through a trade-in program.

Subsidy Scope: Covers areas such as car replacements, home appliance upgrades, and more.

Positive Economic Cycle:

Viewpoint: As consumer income rises and consumer confidence strengthens, the Chinese economy is expected to move towards a positive cycle.#ETH持续飙升