It's a new month again, and there isn’t much time left until the New Year. I wonder if this year’s gains in the crypto space have met my expectations. I’m quite satisfied, as this year’s market has indeed been pretty good, and making money has relatively not been that difficult.
Current market expectations!
This wave of market mainly concentrates on old coins on CEX, with almost all old coins rising more than 30%. This wave is somewhat similar to the trend after the DeFi boom in 2020 when large funds collectively returned to CEX. At that time, not many people successfully captured the CEX trend; many made money in DeFi but missed the opportunity in CEX.
Ethereum is now also showing signs of revival. Observing the market a few days ago, it can be seen that this recent correction of Bitcoin did not significantly drag down the altcoins, and the performance of the king of altcoins, ETH, even exceeded the overall market index CoinDesk 20, which rose by 0.5% during the same period.
Market sector rotation is underway, and investors are beginning to shift funds towards smaller-scale, higher-risk cryptocurrencies, resulting in outstanding performances from established altcoins like DOGE, DASH, XRP, LTC!
Expectations for the market in early December! What potential coins can we focus on in the future!
1. Market pace accelerates: With the accelerated inflow of ETH ETFs, ETH and other altcoins will usher in stronger upward momentum. The overall pace of the market will no longer be as slow as in the past two weeks, but will gradually enter a more active and rapid state.
2. New coins/next-generation coins take over, old coins rotation comes to an end: The rotation of old coins is nearing its end, and the market focus will gradually shift to new or next-generation coins. These coins may become the hot topic in December, attracting a large influx of capital and becoming the center of market attention.
3. Differentiation of altcoin trends intensifies: The performance of altcoins will no longer simply follow the general rise of ETH, but will start to show more significant sector rotation phenomena. The performance differences among coins in different tracks will gradually increase, and the structural differentiation in the market will become more apparent.
Currently, for example, coins like FIL, EOS, and ARB, although they may experience a wave of major uptrends, I prefer to take advantage of opportunities when they arise and then run, focusing most of my energy on capturing the main line while allocating a small portion of my energy to the support line. Even if I'm wrong, I won’t miss the overall BETA returns of the bull market; but if I'm right, it's equivalent to having obtained the script for success.
Altcoins are still in the rebound and supplementary rise stage. Unless large applications appear in certain ecosystems, these coins will not experience sustained major uptrends. For example, Bitcoin may consolidate around $100,000, meme coins are also adjusting, and capital is beginning to flow into the altcoin sector, driving the short-term market. The recent rise of some lesser-known old coins is mainly due to the concentration of institutional capital, making them easy to pump.
From a fundamental perspective, Ethereum's on-chain activity and demand have not changed significantly, gas fees remain at historically low levels, and inflationary pressure still exists. The high FDV of altcoins and ongoing unlocking issues have yet to be resolved.
Therefore, the current market situation is still in the rebound and supplementary rise stage. We can focus on the rebound potential of tokens in the Ethereum ecosystem. After all, the U.S. ETF currently only involves Bitcoin and Ethereum, and as the 'king of the ecosystem', Ethereum's position remains solid. The previous FUD caused a sharp decline in its ecological tokens, leaving relatively large room for rebound. Leading options in the market, such as public chains, DeFi, L2, etc., are usually the first choice for the market! For example, the leading staking token LDO; layer two solutions like OP, zk, and domain names like ENS are all worth paying attention to.
