Os principais eventos financeiros deste mês ocorreram um após o outro, o que terá um impacto profundo nos mercados financeiros globais:
Primeiro, na quarta-feira, 4 de dezembro, os dados de emprego do ADP de novembro nos EUA serão divulgados às 21h15. Os dados de emprego do ADP são um importante indicador prospectivo do mercado de trabalho dos EUA. As suas mudanças podem muitas vezes fornecer pistas importantes para análises e julgamentos subsequentes da situação geral do emprego. Todas as partes no mercado prestarão muita atenção a isto. com base nas flutuações de dados, e os investidores também terão uma ideia da vitalidade e resiliência da economia dos EUA.
Em segundo lugar, às 03h00 de quinta-feira, 5 de dezembro, a Reserva Federal divulgará o Livro Bege das Condições Económicas. Este Livro Bege é como um "relatório de exame físico" da economia dos EUA. Ele detalha a pesquisa e análise aprofundada do Federal Reserve sobre as condições econômicas de várias regiões. Seu conteúdo cobre as tendências de desenvolvimento de muitas indústrias, operações comerciais e consumidores. A informação pode fornecer uma base detalhada para a formulação subsequente da política monetária da Reserva Federal e também fornecer aos participantes do mercado uma janela para uma compreensão abrangente do cenário macroeconómico dos EUA. Às 21h30 daquele dia, também será anunciado o número de pessoas que solicitaram seguro-desemprego nos Estados Unidos durante a semana. Esses dados refletem a dinâmica em tempo real do mercado de trabalho dos EUA e são um importante indicador da estabilidade e da atividade. do mercado de trabalho. Suas flutuações afetarão diretamente o sentimento do mercado e as tendências dos preços dos ativos.
On December 6, Friday, at 21:30, the U.S. will release the unemployment rate for November, along with the non-farm employment population data. Non-farm employment data is considered a 'barometer' of the employment market, and significant fluctuations often trigger drastic movements in financial markets, affecting the stock market, bond market, and foreign exchange market. The unemployment rate intuitively reflects the pressure on the U.S. job market, and together, these two data points form the core elements for assessing the health of the U.S. economy, having a significant influence on the global economic landscape.
On December 11, Wednesday, at 21:30, the U.S. will release the unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for November. CPI data is a key indicator for measuring inflation levels, directly related to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path choices. If CPI data exceeds expectations, the market may anticipate a more hawkish monetary policy from the Fed to curb inflation; conversely, if the data falls below expectations, it may trigger expectations of economic slowdown and looser monetary policy, leading to significantly different impacts on various asset prices.
On December 19, Thursday, at 3:00 AM, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be released, followed by a press conference held by Chairman Powell at 3:30 AM. The Fed's interest rate decision is the 'super conductor' of the global financial market, and any decision to raise, lower, or maintain interest rates will trigger a repricing of global asset prices. Powell's statements during the press conference are crucial for the market's interpretation of the Fed's policy intentions, and investors will carefully listen to every word, looking for clues about the future direction of monetary policy to adjust their investment portfolios and risk preferences.
Crypto market outlook:
With the end of Thanksgiving, the U.S. economy is gradually regaining its strength and is about to showcase its influence in the market. In the crypto space, if Bitcoin ETFs can continue the current trend of capital inflow, Bitcoin prices are expected to break the $100,000 mark before the end of the year; this expectation is like a bombshell, igniting enthusiasm and anticipation among market participants. Important data such as non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates are set to be released this week, and the performance of these data will have subtle correlations and interactions with the crypto market. At the same time, ETFs and U.S. stocks related to crypto have also become the focus of market attention. Bitcoin has experienced several days of adjustment below the $100,000 mark, with the market waiting for an opportunity for further breakthroughs. Meanwhile, Ethereum has significantly rebounded last week, following Bitcoin's lead, showing strong momentum in recovering its losses, indicating that market funds are accelerating their inflow into the Ethereum market. In the current bullish environment for spot trading, the bullish forces dominate, steadily pushing prices upward. The options market has shown relatively stable performance overall, but the nuances of block trading and market interest rates are worth investors' close attention, as these factors could unwittingly change the short-term direction of the market.
Regarding the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the market should not harbor excessive worries or overly high expectations. From the current market consensus, there is a significant likelihood of a 25 basis point rate hike in December, which has essentially been priced in by the market, so the immediate impact on the market will be relatively limited. However, if the Fed surprises the market with unexpected moves in interest rate decisions, such as a larger-than-expected rate hike or a policy shift, it could trigger severe market turbulence and repricing. Investors need to remain highly vigilant and prepare response plans in advance.
#微软比特币投资投票案 #NFT市场回暖 #ETH持续飙升 #ADA、ENA大额解锁 #XRP解锁新趋势 $BTC $ETH
