Today, the older mainstream led by XRP has welcomed a wave of sustained increases. The main reason may be that investors in these varieties have already been washed out quite a bit, so they are relatively light. Bitcoin is currently testing the support around 95000 downwards. According to the liquidation map, the support around 95000 is still relatively strong over the past 7 days, with resistance above around 99000. In the evening, when American institutions start work, it is expected that the price will easily rise, so there is actually nothing to worry about during the daytime pullback.
From the perspective of Bitcoin's market capitalization ratio, there is still some room for a pullback below, indicating that altcoins still have some room for catch-up.
In the past month, the total market capitalization of altcoins ranked outside the top 10 has doubled, while Bitcoin has increased by 50%. Simply put, if your account hasn't doubled in the past month, then you have underperformed the average altcoin increase. If the increase is less than 50%, you may even have underperformed Bitcoin.
Currently, the market is showing a clear shift in funds. Previously, Bitcoin + meme was one combination, while the traditional altcoins driven by the Ethereum ecosystem are another combination. The Solana series has already experienced an explosion, so it is temporarily in decline. The BSC series has not yet exploded. Over the past ten days, funds have noticeably shifted out of BTC speculation and into the Ethereum ecosystem. Funds from on-chain coins have also followed suit. It is currently believed that this wave of traditional altcoin speculation will continue.
In the past two years, the price of Bitcoin has increased sixfold, while altcoins have only increased by less than three times. Considering that the overall funding environment is far inferior to that of 2021, the total expectations for this round of altcoins have been significantly lowered. Being able to achieve several times with full positions would be very satisfactory.
After this round, most people have understood the impact of the macro funding environment on altcoins. Similar to the Russell 2000 small stocks in the U.S. stock market, only during the liquidity phase can the Russell 2000 significantly outperform large tech stocks, and only then can altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin. Otherwise, even during a bull cycle but in a contraction phase, holding altcoins for 85% of the time can be quite painful. In the next bull-bear cycle, we need to consider the macro funding environment to determine the best way to allocate cryptocurrencies.
In addition to the altcoin market brought about by the shift of some funds, there is also a possibility next year that a new batch of ETF applications will be approved. Currently, media reports indicate that there are already 4 altcoins applying for ETFs, with 2 more in preparation. These ETF applications may serve as the foundation for the next wave of altcoin speculation, but the timing is estimated to be in 2025 or even later. This is the second wave of potential market activity that can be anticipated under a macro environment with no liquidity.
Speaking of ETH, last Friday, the daily inflow of funds into Ethereum's ETF exceeded $330 million, while the inflow into Bitcoin on the same day was only $320 million. This is the first time in human history that Ethereum's ETF has surpassed Bitcoin's inflow in a single day, and it even trended on social media. Therefore, Ethereum's performance over the weekend was quite good, with prices peaking at 3760.
The eth/BTC exchange rate has also exceeded 0.038, which can be considered a slight catch-up. It is still a bit far from Ethereum's true explosion, after all, Bitcoin has reached new highs many times, while Ethereum hasn't even returned to 3977 in May this year or 4093 in March this year. It is still 1000 dollars short of the historical high of 4800, which is much farther than Bitcoin's distance to 100k. One can only say that Ethereum still has a lot of room for growth.
In December, millions of dollars will flood into the cryptocurrency market, so be sure to adjust your altcoin positions.
Here are the altcoins that I believe are worth laying low for.
NEAR
NEAR is very close to breaking through. Setting aside puns, it does indeed seem that way. The downward trend line that has extended until early 2022 has now become resistance again. However, since the price is currently holding above the 0.236 Fibonacci level, a breakout may not be far off.
If a breakout occurs, the first target will be to break the next Fibonacci level of $8.53. However, more importantly, the $NEAR bulls will need to push the price a bit higher and break through the volatility high of $9.11. If this happens, the downward trend will be officially broken, and it is likely to continue moving upward from there.
PEPE
Born from the popular meme 'Pepe the Frog', PEPE has always carried traffic since its inception, with market acceptance soaring. The 'No Tax + Burn' dual mechanism cleverly alleviates inflation concerns, having once created a market capitalization of $1.6 billion. Today, the community's enthusiasm remains high and demand is bullish, ready to continue writing legends and expand its territory.
ACT
Elon Musk has retweeted content about AI Agents for two consecutive days, and this sector's popularity has clearly risen, with expectations for it to continue to soar in the future. The western world composed of AI Agents is the most imaginative and hottest track of this bull market. This is why I have always firmly held onto act, as the sector's beta directly captures the entire sector's dividends.
Currently, ACT is the only token related to AI Agents on the Binance platform, which gives it a scarcity advantage.
$act community is doing everything possible to help AI memes develop, and currently, many AI agents are already working around act.
AI meme is the most important track for on-chain assets and may even create another meme ecosystem. As the only AI meme traded on major exchanges, act = AI meme sector index.
