Trump's presidency, dual benefits arise, friendly BTC commitments and tariff policies, igniting Bitcoin's consecutive eight-week rise?
Trump to be elected president in 2024, winning both electoral and popular votes, the crypto market is in jubilation. The Federal Reserve further lowers interest rates, Bitcoin is stimulated, today breaking the new high of 76,849 USD.
Looking back at history, Bitcoin performed in the months of November and December during the two recent election years:
2020: November rose by 42.95%, December rose by 46.92%
2016: November rose by 5.42%, December rose by 30.8%
Bitcoin has risen after election years, often peaking in annual growth during these months. It is expected that this year's performance will continue, at least until the end of the year.
Trump has two major policy benefits for Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin rose and gold fell after Trump's election, it is expected that by 2025, his policies will support both Bitcoin and gold markets.
Why?
Because Bitcoin and gold may profit from "devaluation trades," a strategy commonly used to respond to currency devaluation and geopolitical risks. Trump advocates increasing tariffs, and geopolitical conflicts may escalate, which will promote "devaluation trades." For instance, regarding Trump's policies over the past year, he plans to impose tariffs of 10% to 20% on imported goods, and some speeches mentioned even higher rates, especially targeting China.
I believe that increasing import tariffs in the U.S. will raise commodity costs, and companies often pass these costs onto consumers, resulting in rising prices and intensified inflation. As a hedge against inflation, Bitcoin has its unique value, possibly maintaining or increasing its value during inflation, helping investors find stability.
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