As of now, the probabilities of Trump and Harris winning are very close, making it difficult to determine who is more likely to win. Here are some influencing factors:
1. Poll support:
• Overall support close to even: The final pre-election poll results from NBC show Trump and Harris with equal support at 49%, with only 2% of voters undecided. This deadlock in support indicates that both sides have similar influence and supporter base across the country.
• Swing state support has its advantages: In the crucial 'swing states', the competition between the two is also very fierce. Different poll results show some differences, but overall, Harris has led by a narrow margin in some swing states like Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin; while Trump has an advantage in some polls in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
2. Campaign strategies:
• Trump: Emphasizes populist appeals, attracting voters' resonance by stressing the slogan 'Make America Great Again', blaming illegal immigration for economic problems, and claiming that traditional values are under threat. He communicates directly with voters through large rallies and social media, successfully mobilizing his core supporters, but this may alienate moderate voters in key swing states.
• Harris: Adopts a more inclusive campaign approach, trying to unite the diverse Democratic coalition. Her campaign emphasizes policies such as healthcare reform, climate change, social equity, and racial justice, striving to attract independent voters and dissatisfied Republican voters. Engaging with voters through town halls and policy forums, she emphasizes grassroots organization and community outreach.
3. Campaign activities:
• Trump: Has participated in over 900 rallies this year, and in the final stages of the election, his schedule is packed, mostly in key swing states, from the 'Rust Belt' states of Michigan and Wisconsin to the southern states of North Carolina and Georgia, tirelessly traveling and speaking in an attempt to secure more votes at the last moment.
• Harris: Also actively campaigning in swing states, hosting some large rally events, such as holding a large rally on the White House lawn, and receiving support from some celebrities.
4. External factors:
• Supporters: Notable wealthy supporters of Harris include Bill Gates, Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz, LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, and Bloomberg founder Michael Bloomberg; notable wealthy supporters of Trump include banking magnate Tim Mellon, entrepreneur Elon Musk, and casino mogul widow Miriam Adelson. Both sides have certain financial and resource support behind them.
• Impact of international situation: Current international events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Hamas conflict, may also influence voter attitudes. Trump and Harris have differing positions on foreign policy; for example, on the Russia-Ukraine war, Harris supports continued U.S. aid to Ukraine, while Trump calls for peace through negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.