Lost votes can still lead to the White House?
In the U.S. elections, the person who ultimately enters the White House may not be the one who received the most votes. In American history, there have been five presidents who did not win the support of the majority of voters. These five are considered to have lost based on the popular vote, yet they won the presidency by securing a majority in the Electoral College.
This type of rare 'black swan' event is caused by the two-layer voting mechanism of U.S. elections. During the popular vote phase, voters' votes do not directly select the president; the voting results only show which party the state's 'electors' belong to. This Electoral College will represent the voters of each state and then vote for the presidential candidates to select the final winner of the election.
Previously, traders heavily betting on 'Trump assets' began to cash out, with cryptocurrencies, the dollar, U.S. stocks, gold, and U.S. bonds all experiencing varying degrees of decline. No one expected that the profits in hand would fly away; at the very least, they would balance positions and reduce the betting ratio on Trump assets.
From the current stage, we can see that Harris's winning probability will be higher than Trump's, and Trump could potentially lose. During the voting process in Pennsylvania, the Trump team encountered Democratic 'cheating,' recreating the scandal of the 2020 presidential election! At the very least, market sentiment has been shaken, and there is reluctance to heavily invest in Trump assets. If a similar 'black swan' event occurs in this election, it could become the only upside for Bitcoin to rise.
What kind of changes will the cryptocurrency circle face next?
Viewpoint 1: If Trump wins, there is no doubt that Bitcoin will surge. Note that I am referring to Bitcoin, not the entire cryptocurrency market; whether the whole market will follow depends on the subsequent strength of Trump's policies. Only then might there be a possibility of forcibly pushing the cryptocurrency market into a bull market.
Viewpoint 2: If Harris wins, Bitcoin's price will return to experience a deep correction, with a waterfall-like price drop likely pushing it close to 60,000, and then starting an upward trend.
Viewpoint 3: This refers to the 'black swan' event I mentioned. From the polls, we can see that Harris has a probability of winning the popular vote; however, there may be 'underworld' events in the electoral voting. Therefore, the market will likely follow a pattern of testing the bottom and then rebounding, although this correction may not be very strong and will be relatively short-lived.
Viewpoint 4: Regardless of who wins or loses, the cryptocurrency market will ultimately rise. I have mentioned this viewpoint within the community; for details, you can check within the community, where I have clarified the reasons for the rise, the underlying logic, and why the bull market has not yet arrived, as well as why the price is currently in a downward state.
In the short cycle, whether on the 4-hour or hourly chart, the price is above 68,000 and the rebound momentum has not opened up. The price trend is also not in a weak pattern. Even if there is a short-term rebound, it does not show continuous upward movement with rising low points; instead, it operates in a sideways manner. The upper level around 69,300 is in a short-term position of a top-bottom conversion, and within the day, this position will be used for short operations.
