GCR returns after six months, reviewing his logic for betting on Trump 7 times over 3 years, and 'has taken profits' triggered panic selling among whales.
Written by: Alex Liu, Foresight News.
Legendary trader GCR was last active on social media on April 14 this year, the day the market experienced a significant drop. He posted a bullish outlook for the future, and the market almost simultaneously hit the bottom. This may just be a coincidence, but it highlights his strong personal influence.
Time has quickly come to the eve of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and GCR has finally posted again, but this time unrelated to crypto: 'The result of the 2000 election was ultimately decided by a margin of 537 votes (48.847% to 48.838%). While it is unlikely that 2024 will be this close, I still encourage everyone to vote tomorrow (whether you vote for the Republican or Democratic party).'
Someone in the comments mentioned: 'I'm not joking, my entire fortune is based on GCR's prophecy betting on Trump's victory. If I get liquidated, I will privately message to request a refund.'
The election result has long become a tradable asset. Which side is GCR betting on? What is GCR's prophecy according to the aforementioned netizen?
It turns out that as early as 2021, GCR @GiganticRebirth posted that:
'One of my most confident trades, TRUMP2024.
FTX's liquidity is severely lacking, so we have been accumulating positions through Alameda OTC and other sources since around 0.10 / 10c (10 cents per share, with a final winning share worth $1).
The biggest risk of this trade is (Trump) suffering a heart attack; otherwise, it is destined to rise to $0.65.'
On July 4, 2022, he also stated directly:
Looking back now, this series of operations seems like cheating, predicting the future three years in advance. (I guess he also watches Foresight News.)
Trump successfully secured the Republican nomination, with DeSantis going to zero. In the presidential election market, Trump's winning odds peaked at 0.7, just above his predicted 0.65, achieving a 7-fold return. How was this accomplished?
The probability of Trump winning on Polymarket is as high as 71.5%.
GCR responded to the comment mentioned above yesterday, reviewing this trade and stating that he 'has taken profits.'
See the full response below:
'I've seen this sentiment many times; as always, I advise against using leverage and engaging in reckless gambling.'
As traders, our job is to think about possibilities and find the maximum discrepancy between expectations and accurate pricing.
In 2021, I was absolutely convinced of two predictions.
(1) DeSantis (will not secure the Republican nomination) because the front runner is a paper tiger, and the possibility of Trump becoming the real Republican candidate exceeds 95%.
(2) Predicting that the market will exhibit a right-wing bias (as I observed in Trump's odds in 2020); therefore, the expected pricing of the eventual Republican nominee (whoever that may be) will rise to 65 cents (please refer to my pinned tweet, identifying 0.65 since 2021).
Therefore, buying Trump at a price below 10% maximizes value, because I know if my bearish argument on DeSantis is correct, the odds will rise to over 65% (as well as buying other proxy bets related to Trump's undervalued odds).
Both of these predictions have materialized (Trump won the Republican nomination, and his winning share price reached 65 cents). I feel very satisfied; I have captured the essence of this trend and taken profits from my positions and proxy bets, as most of the delta expectations and realities have been realized.
Now we are waiting to see if there will be a fair election.
And how much influence does GCR have? Just 20 hours ago, a whale who withdrew $500,000 from Binance to continue betting on Trump's victory started selling off his positions just one minute after GCR's post 'has taken profits' and 'waiting to see if there will be a fair election,' clearing out all of his over $3 million bet on Trump's victory within an hour.
Is GCR implying that as long as the election is fair, Trump will win? Will his bets continue to be accurate as always? We look forward to a positive answer, especially since he also mentioned that ETH will eventually rise to $10,000.
