Summary:
The global economy is facing multiple pressures including high inflation, high interest rates, economic slowdown, and geopolitical conflicts. Domestically, the U.S. is increasingly turbulent due to social divisions and political polarization. The 2024 U.S. election has once again become a focal point of global attention — the competition between Harris and Trump has entered a heated stage. This article delves into the current electoral situation, the candidates' positions, the influence of key swing states, and the potential constraints of congressional elections on policies, while exploring the potential impacts of either candidate's election. For China, regardless of the election outcome, the situation of U.S.-China confrontation is unlikely to ease. This article argues that China needs to maintain economic stability and deepen reform and opening-up to remain invincible in the changing global landscape.

1. U.S. Election under the backdrop of de-globalization: A tumultuous election landscape

The global economy is shrouded in gloom, with high inflation, rising interest rates, economic growth slowing, and a plethora of geopolitical conflicts and trade barriers challenging the development foundations of various countries. Domestically, the U.S. is also turbulent due to political polarization and social divisions. The presidential campaign between Trump and Harris has become a focal point for both America and the world, as the campaign journeys of both candidates have experienced dramatic twists and turns, including shooting incidents and sudden candidate replacements. Harris is running in place of Biden as the current vice president, while Trump's performance on issues such as the economy and immigration also influences the electoral dynamics.

As of the latest polls on November 2, Trump holds a slight lead over Harris by 0.3 percentage points. Nevertheless, polling errors may have a certain impact on the final result. For example, in the 2016 election, polls showed Hillary leading, but Trump ultimately won by a narrow margin in battleground states. This adds further complexity to the electoral situation.

2. Swing states become crucial: The gains and losses determine the success or failure of the election

The U.S. election is not a direct election of one person, one vote, but rather an indirect election of the president through the Electoral College system. Therefore, winning key swing states means holding the key to victory. The support bases of both parties are relatively solid, with the East and West coasts largely being Democratic 'blue states', while the South and Midwest are Republican 'red states'. However, swing states in the 'Rust Belt' such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and the 'Sun Belt' states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona will be the focus of candidates' efforts.

Polling in these states fluctuates frequently, showing the swing nature of this election. Trump's support in certain swing states once led, but various factors may cause changes in the results. For instance, the Democratic party's slow response to issues like hurricane relief and the Middle East situation has led to voter dissatisfaction.

3. Congressional elections: Checks on presidential policies

The seats in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives will also be contested on election day, and the results of these congressional elections will directly affect the implementation of the president's future policies. Currently, the Republican Party is more likely to control the Senate while maintaining a slight advantage in the House. If the Republican Party fully controls Congress, Trump’s election will allow for smoother policy advancement; conversely, if the Democratic Party wins more seats, Harris's policies may receive greater support. The U.S. system of checks and balances ensures that government power is distributed among different parties, limiting presidential policies based on congressional party composition.

4. Comparison of policy positions between the two candidates: Profound impacts of differing agendas

Harris and Trump's policy positions reflect fundamental differences between the two parties in areas such as the economy, trade, and foreign relations.

  • Harris: Her position continues Biden's 'Bidenomics', focusing on healthcare reform, easing immigration policies, tax reform, and particularly social welfare. On China, Harris tends to pressure China by uniting allies and limiting China's technological development.

  • Trump: Continuing the 'America First' policy, advocating for the return of manufacturing, cutting domestic taxes, and supporting traditional energy development. On trade with China, he adopts a hardline stance, even advocating for significantly raising tariffs and limiting Chinese investment in the U.S.

These two candidates' ascension to power may have significant impacts on the U.S. economy, domestic employment, and even U.S.-China relations.

5. China's countermeasures: Based on its own economy, deepen reform and opening-up

Regardless of the outcome of this U.S. election, tensions in U.S.-China relations may persist. In the face of a complex international situation, China must maintain economic and employment stability, using reform and opening-up as a lever to attract global capital inflows. By strengthening domestic demand, increasing national income, and boosting the job market, China is expected to steadily advance amid global turmoil. The long-term nature of competition between major powers has become a consensus, and the best strategy to cope with external pressures is to 'focus on oneself' and win global trust through sound economic policies.


In this globally watched U.S. election, Trump and Harris represent fundamentally different visions for the future, corresponding to the Republican and Democratic parties, respectively, and will profoundly impact the global economy and U.S.-China relations. Regardless of who wins, both candidates may bring policy and market fluctuations. For China, the focus is on laying the groundwork for sustainable development through deepening reforms and stabilizing domestic demand.

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