According to BlockBeats, on November 2, QCP released a weekend summary stating that Thursday's core PCE data was slightly above expectations (actual year-on-year growth of 2.7%, expected 2.6%). In contrast, Friday's non-farm payroll data (NFP) unexpectedly fell short of expectations (actual 12,000, expected 110,000), causing the U.S. dollar index (DXY) to rebound and return to the 104 level.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high on Tuesday night, trading at a peak of 73.6k, driven by market expectations for the election week. While Bitcoin performed strongly this week, Ethereum remained relatively flat, failing to break the 2.7k mark. Against a backdrop of strong ETF inflows, Bitcoin saw a net inflow of over $2.1 billion this week.
Despite Bitcoin falling below $69,000 on Friday, market interest remains strong, with total Bitcoin futures and Bitcoin options open interest remaining at $40.65 billion and $25.3 billion, respectively. In the upcoming election week, short-term implied volatility is still above 72 volatility units, with a slight increase in bearish sentiment for Bitcoin and Ethereum, as traders are adding downside protection positions.
Although Trump is considered a frontrunner for the next U.S. president, his odds on Polymarket have fallen from a high of 66% to 57%, while Harris's support stands at 43%. Regardless of the outcome, we believe the election will replicate the 'good news already priced in' market, similar to the situation after the Nashville Bitcoin conference.
