Non-farm Payroll Shock! Bitcoin Dives to 60,000, Smart Money Exits! Are Big Volatilities Coming?
Last night’s non-farm data stunned the market, with the number of jobs reported being only about one-tenth of expectations. Even more bizarrely, from U.S. stocks to BTC, risk assets did not follow the narrative of "job collapse => economic recession => risk asset decline", but instead rose sharply across the board. Thus, it had to be forcibly explained as "job collapse => Fed must cut rates => risk asset rise".
However, before the non-farm data was released, the market had already priced in over a 90% probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25bp in November. Such bad data only adds another 10%, making it a certainty of a rate cut. How could the risk of recession be completely erased? Let's pull up the intraday data and take a closer look. It turns out it played out as a script of rising first and then falling.
