Benjamin Cowen, the founder of Into The Cryptoverse, believes that the launch of Ethereum's spot ETFs will likely trigger a price dip rather than a rally, primarily due to Ethereum's supply issues.

Since April, Ethereum's supply has been increasing by about 60,000 ETH per month. If this trend continues, the supply will return to its September 2022 levels by December.

Cowen highlighted that the supply of ETH has risen by nearly 60,000 ETH in the last 30 days alone.

In contrast, from the Merge until April 2024, the supply had decreased by about 455,000 ETH, but it has since increased by around 150,000 ETH in just three months.

Currently, the supply is down by 298,000 ETH since the Merge, but at this rate, it will soon revert.

Cowen suggests that later this year, investors might focus more on the increasing supply rather than on monetary policy.

He also draws a parallel to 2016, when there was a fakeout below the lows in Q2 followed by a real capitulation in Q4, suggesting a similar pattern might occur this year.

Cowen also notes that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is crucial.

During the last cycle, ETH/BTC broke support the same month the Fed cut rates.

The Fed is expected to cut rates again this September, similar to 2016.

Typically, Bitcoin dominance stalls in Q3 of halving years before a major rally in Q4, but this year, Bitcoin's dominance has been stronger.

Cowen observed that ETH/BTC in 2024 is following the 2019/2020 average, where the final low was not set until Q4.

In 2016, ETH/BTC hit lows in August, rallied in September, and then reversed course through the end of the year.

If ETH/USD follows this pattern, it could see a short-lived rebound before a dip in Q4, followed by a surge next year.

When the spot Bitcoin ETF launched, there was an initial surge followed by a sharp decline.

If Ethereum's spot ETFs follow a similar path, there might be an initial dip, a rebound, and then another drop before a significant surge next year.

So far, ETH/USD in 2024 has been closely tracking the 2016 pattern, suggesting a lower low for ETH/BTC later this year.

Cowen indicated that if ETH/BTC holds the May 2024 low by year-end, it could signal the low is in.

However, he also warned there is a decent chance that ETH/BTC will be lower than it is today in the next three to six months.

He concluded by advising caution, saying, "I think ETH/BTC will go up in 2025. Also, I get things wrong all the time so please hedge these views."

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