Bitcoin (BTC) has a 45% chance of surpassing $100K by the end of 2024, driven by strong market demand for call options and bullish sentiment. Learn more about BTC’s outlook.
Bitcoin's Path to $100K: A Coin Toss?
The probability of Bitcoin (BTC) hitting $100,000 by the end of 2024 has surged to 45%, according to the latest options data. Nearly half of Bitcoin (BTC) options traders are betting on a six-figure price, with some forecasting an ambitious $150,000, despite the cryptocurrency's recent pullback to $90,000.
Key Market Indicators
1. Options Market Signals Bullish Sentiment
Call Options Dominate: Call options—bets on price increases—account for 41.3% of trades, compared to 38.3% for puts (bets on price declines).
Probabilities Breakdown:
68% chance: BTC trades between $81,493 and $115,579 by year-end.
5% chance: BTC drops below $70,000 or surges past $137,645.
2. Current BTC Price and Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $92,680, down 7% from its recent high of $99,541. Despite the dip, analysts suggest (BTC) is consolidating around the $90,000 range, a move considered healthy for the longevity of the bull market.
Analysts Weigh In on Pullbacks and Probabilities
Short-Term Volatility Expected
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju warned that even during parabolic bull runs, Bitcoin has historically experienced -30% corrections, as seen in the 2021 cycle. However, he emphasized:
“This isn’t a call for a correction—just manage your risk and avoid panic selling at local bottoms. We’re in a bull market.”
Bull Market Consolidation
Prominent analyst PlanC supports a period of consolidation in the $90,000 range, stating:
“It’s looking more and more likely that we could actually spend some time consolidating in the 90s. This would be the best-case scenario for the longevity of this bull market.”
What the Options Market Says About Bitcoin's Future
Strong Demand for Calls
Nick Forster, founder of an onchain options DeFi protocol, noted robust demand for Bitcoin call options, which reflects confidence in upside potential:
“Very few sellers signals a strong market appetite for both upside potential and downside protection.”
Probabilities Shift
Last week’s 34% chance of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 has risen to 45%.
There is now a 4% probability of BTC hitting $150,000, driven by optimism in the options market.
Bitcoin's Road to $100K
While Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally toward $100K faces potential pullbacks, analysts and options data suggest that the milestone remains within reach. Consolidation in the $90,000 range could provide a solid foundation for the next leg up, with traders and investors continuing to eye six-figure targets, according to Cointelegraph.
