Bitcoin has a very clear 4 year halving cycles which it followed all previous years.
Top of each cycle comes to November-December. Bottom forms 1-1.3 years after that top.
Bottom consolidation period usually correlates with 0.5-0.75 period of bearish cycles which corresponds with December'22-June'23. Since it doesn't yet look like BTC had final capitulation I believe we should see the bottom in the beginning of 2023 year (March-June). Most probably it will be 10540-12500 zone (see week cha
What a precision 👌🏼 Given month ago level was finally hit yesterday.
Reminder that #ETHBTC chart is an indicator for alts season. When #Ethereum bounce, then we will have majority of other alts bounce and outperform BTC.
I like that wick and how $ETH candles are forming at lower TF now. Sure this is week chart, so the following weeks may visit that area again, but these early signs are satisfying my views already.
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#Ethereum vs $BTC is a classical instrument to see if alts market is bullish or bearish. Yes, since classical times other influential alts appeared (like SOL), but #ETHBTC remains the main one IMHO. And here we can see total bearishness.
Last week $ETH closed below falling wedge lower trendline. If this week keeps that momentum, we may expect it to drop down to ~0.033 (March'21 close).
If turn bullish and close this or next week above ~0.038 that PA can be taken as first signs of #ETH bullish reversal (and start of alts season)
I already hold $XAI so consider that post as shilling my own bags. But I also think that resistance zone around 0.255-0.27 which was tested 3 times since August is weak enough to consider chances for breakout very high.
So we have 111 days consolidation range and top of the range at ~0.26 tested multiple times during that period. Very very bearish target for breakout is 0.29 and if manage to grow above 0.35, XAI will leave most of bearish volume below. Do your math.
Now waiting for 100k and what happens there. In any case, as I always say, respect the momentum. Especially when historical resistance levels don't exist or exist only in imagination. Momentum is bullish and, until we see break down in it and then choppy stage and then break of previous higher low, no sense in trying to catch the top. Shorting against the trend, if no extraordinary pump happened, is the quickest way to wipe out your balance.
Levels of interest for future dips (purely theoretical for some black swan event): * 94.5-95k as re-test of recent round number and Y VAH3 * developing Year VWAP VAH2 and dev 4H 20sma now around ~83500 * CME Futures gap at 77930-80670
Buying some $APT on that pullback. Whatever caused the pump, volume was good and it cleared stops above several consolidation swing tops. Clear invalidation as well.
$BTC stays above developing VWAP 3rd VAH band. Yesterday was new ATH and today we might see another one. I have alarms set for round numbers like 95k and 100k.
While price moves above those levels #Bitcoin remains bullish. First signs of "bearishness" in terms of potential dips comes when price get stuck under 3rd dev Y VWAP VAH band. And confirmation on several 4H candles trading below developing month VAH. That move can lead to a fast dip to developing Year VWAP VAH2 around ~81860 and CME Futures gap at 77930-80670
Fear and Greed index at 90. Not that often it gets that high, so I decided to look back at F&G history and what happened to $BTC back then: * June 26 2019 at 95 - top at 13970 before correction to 3800 * All December 2020 above 90 - bull run from ~17.6k to ~41k * middle February 2021 above 90 - 57-58k, then was the dip to 28850 and another leg up to 62k which ended with 2 months consolidation in between 64-50k and then correction to 29k * March 4th 2024 - last impulse to 68500 before 8 month consolidation started in between 49k and 73k
As you can see, not all cases led to correction. In December 2020 it was just a pure bull run up by 138%. In 2021 correction by 31% scared everyone out, and then #BTC made another 124% up. The only case of real top was in 2019. But the market have changed a lot during last five years.
So what do I want to say... extreme greed is not always the signal to sell. It can also represent strong bullish momentum as well as increased potential for high volatility on shake outs, as too much people are being long at the same time. So be greedy, but careful, and don't forget about risk management. Despite yesterday's choppy price action I think 95-100k is still very realistic.
P.S. For future #Bitcoin correction scenario potential targets are developing Year VWAP VAH2 around 81500 and CME Futures gap at 77930-80670.
My entry strategy is either on stop-market breakout above 2585 (more on 4H close above 2600). Or wait for the dips below 2260 as this zone should store huge liquidity.
Rejected on 4H. Nearest zones to watch are: 1) Above 91074 - 91500 for a bounce - possible short there 2) Below 87815 - 88544 for next leg down or extension of that impulse. Potential zone for longs.
From August FREE signal $SUI is up by 431% 🤑 Anyone HODLED? From my last entries in TG channel up by 122% and far above 12RR 💰💰💰
Last three weeks formed good bullish momentum that should be strong enough to push price higher this week. Opposite to above, lower timeframes indicate high potential for dips. Most probably to 3.5 zone - if price return back up fast will be able to continue growing towards the end of this week. If get stuck there, maybe its not only #SUI but BTC as well. And that will be different scenario.
I promised you GEM and $KAS was it. Almost instant bounce without any consolidation in the buy zone and up by 37% so far. Higher timeframes look promising for much more. At least if this week close above 0.18 (or even better - above 0.19)
My TG channel #KAS entry was lower and earlier, catching previous 26% pump and stayed on HODL mode for more.
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$KAS made a nice pump yesterday, which got stopped at 0.15 4H OB. But that zone remains very attractive to buy more (either here on Futures or on other exchanges on spot). Sooner or later Binance will list it on spot. And on November 19th #KAS will be listed on Kraken.
As I wrote yesterday, first move on Monday is up ✅ $BTC bounced from developing month VWAP VAH and now testing from below 1H bear OB, which is also the top of the range. Within today we may expect breakout attempt that will either close above the range (which should increase chances for another leg up), or rejection with nearest pullback target zones at Friday close 91074 and week close at 89900.
Week candle closed bullish, so bullish momentum gained in two weeks is still strong and gives high chances for this week to establish new ATH at 95-100k. Somewhere there we may expect another slow down into consolidation. At some point there should be a correction. We just can't say exactly, where and when it will happen. So follow the momentum.
Future correction scenario targets - developing Year VWAP VAH2 around 82500 and CME Futures gap at 77930-80670. When it happens, now is impossible to say. But these levels are good to buy the dips.
Yesterday I wrote that I will take partial profits here, but decided to give alts longs a chance to grow more, while BTC dominance is pulling back to 60%. Developing Week candle is very bullish, and unless something bearish happens over the weekend, that bullish momentum should give #Bitcoin another push up (regardless of how it ends). Developing Month candle bullish as well.
Pay attention to developing Year VWAP VAH3 (third band) - this dynamic SR will play crucial role in making decision on whether to take profits from longs or no, because acceptance below it will most probably lead to drop back to the bottom of that range. But keeping in mind week/month #BTC charts I prefer to stay bullish as long as possible, until really clear signal for correction appears on the chart.
Correction scenario targets - developing Year VWAP VAH2 around 80700 and CME Futures gap at 77930-80670. When that correction happens, at this moment impossible to say. But these levels are good to buy the dips.
I believe $SHIB can be a nice one to accumulate on spot in between 2166 and 1990. Futures trade also make sense with maximum 3x leverage, as SL condition is week close below 1548 and distance from top entry ~28%. Buy zones will be visited next week.
For #1000shib prices are same, but with only one zero in front of numbers.
In my private TG channel I give precise instructions on where and with which amount to enter.
$KAS made a nice pump yesterday, which got stopped at 0.15 4H OB. But that zone remains very attractive to buy more (either here on Futures or on other exchanges on spot). Sooner or later Binance will list it on spot. And on November 19th #KAS will be listed on Kraken.
Developing month chart is bullish. Now consolidates above June high at 718B - while there, it remains within very bullish structure capable to do another leg up to 840 / 924 / 960
If that consolidation range gets broken down, nearest level for re-test is May close around 670 and September high at ~650
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TOTAL MARKET CAP excluding BTCÐ
Bullish scenario in play. Now $BTC dominance is pushing up while BTC price is moving sideway, so alts are pulling back. Therefore Total market cap is pulling back as well. But if September close gives a bounce, we might see a breakout in November 🚀
$BTC definitely slowed down bullish momentum. Same visible at Total market cap excluding BTC and ETH chart (will share it next). It's not the end as developing month chart is still very bullish and week chart not that bad as well. At least at the moment. But as I wrote before, partial profits from longs won't hurt. I will take them on BTC bounce back to developing Year VWAP VAH3, which correlates with 4H gap and 1H OB around 91k
Bullish scenario - #BTC is forming a bullish consolidation range with approximate bottom at 85.1-86.5k and approximate top at 92.5-93.3k - impossible to predict how long it will take.
Bearish scenario - #Bitcoin goes down fast and violent towards developing Year VWAP VAH2 (~80.4-81.6k). On the same move can wick lower to cover CME Futures gap at 77930-80670. Maybe that scenario won't be that bad after all, as it will remove liquidity magnets below and let BTC grow higher after.