Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the infamous crypto billionaire turned convict, will soon be a free man if rumors of a presidential pardon hold true.

It all started after Wall Street Mav tweeted, “Guess who might get an early pardon from President Biden. The #2 largest donor to the Democrats.”

As if that wasn’t enough, Elon Musk (arguably the most powerful person in Trump’s incoming administration) fanned the flames, saying, “I will be shocked if this doesn’t happen.”

SBF is currently rotting in Mendota Federal Prison, serving a 25-year sentence for orchestrating one of the most outrageous financial scandals in modern history.

Convicted in November 2023 on charges of fraud and conspiracy, his case is already a political minefield. Throw in talk of a pardon, and now we’re playing with fireworks.

From crypto king to inmate number who-knows

At his peak, SBF was untouchable. He launched FTX in 2019 and built it into a $32 billion empire in like two years. Over a million users trusted their assets to this guy’s platform. Then November 2022 happened. FTX imploded faster than a meme coin on rug-pull day.

Customers rushed to withdraw billions, triggering a liquidity crisis. Within days, the exchange filed for bankruptcy, and SBF was arrested in the Bahamas on a US extradition request.

Fast forward to 2023, and things got even worse. Prosecutors said SBF had looted billions from FTX users to plug holes at Alameda Research, his hedge fund. The funds also covered personal luxuries, including a $30 million penthouse in the Bahamas.

SBF’s defense team painted him as a naive nerd who got in over his head. The jury wasn’t buying it. By March this year, he was sentenced to 25 years in prison and slapped with an $11.02 billion forfeiture.

Even with time reductions for good behavior under federal rules, SBF will be in his 40s before he breathes free air. That is unless President Joe Biden has other plans. I mean, we did just watch him pardon his son, Hunter Biden. This is not out of pocket.

Why Biden might step in

But SBF didn’t just run a crypto exchange, he ran political donations like a boss. In just 18 months, he shelled out over $70 million to political campaigns, making him one of America’s top donors ever.

More than half of that, about $40 million, went straight to Democrats during the 2022 midterms. That’s second only to George Soros.

His cash wasn’t spread around for nothing. The Protect Our Future PAC, which promotes pandemic preparedness, got $27 million. The House Majority PAC took $6 million. Even the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) pocketed $250,000.

High-profile pro-crypto Democrats like Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker, and Maggie Hassan each received $5,800, the maximum individual contribution allowed.

But he apparently didn’t forget the Republicans. He claimed to have donated similar amounts to GOP candidates, but he used dark money to avoid scrutiny. If true, those donations might match or even outpace what he gave to the Democrats.

Exact figures are anyone’s guess, but we’re talking tens of millions. Is it any wonder Biden might feel the heat? Whether it’s gratitude, pressure from SBF’s political beneficiaries, a desire to take the spotlight off Trump a little bit, or something else entirely, the pardon rumors are growing louder.

Jail time, appeals, and the road ahead without pardon

After his sentencing, SBF was shipped off to Mendota, a federal prison in California. The facility offers medium and minimum security housing. It’s not exactly Rikers, but it’s still prison.

Privacy rules keep details about his living conditions under wraps, but this much is clear: SBF isn’t having any more of his alleged penthouse sex parties anymore.

His lawyers are busy filing appeals. They argue procedural mistakes during the trial violated his rights. Appeals in federal court rarely succeed—only 10% of cases even get a second look. Still, SBF is banking on his legal team to at least shave years off his sentence.

Thanks to the First Step Act, a federal law dedicated to reducing sentences for nonviolent offenders, SBF could cut his time behind bars by a very long margin. If he earns maximum good-behavior credits, he might be out in as little as 12.5 years. But that’s a big “if.”

Public reaction and current sentiment on SBF

Not everyone’s buying into the redemption arc. Victims of FTX’s collapse, who collectively lost billions, see SBF as the face of betrayal. John Ray, the man tasked with cleaning up SBF’s mess at the exchange, has repeatedly emphasized the harm caused by SBF’s actions.

Meanwhile, SBF’s defense team insists the crime was “victimless,” a claim that’s as convincing as a hot dog being called a sandwich. Meanwhile, a YouGov survey shows 37% of Americans view SBF favorably.

Thirteen percent see him unfavorably. The rest? They’re either unaware or couldn’t care less. Among those familiar with his trial, 73% believe he should be behind bars.

If Biden does grant a pardon, the backlash could be brutal. Critics would accuse him of cronyism, especially given SBF’s financial ties to the Democratic Party. On the other hand, the White House might see it differently. Pardons often serve political purposes.

From Zero to Web3 Pro: Your 90-Day Career Launch Plan