DOGE and PEPE are two major memecoins that are highly exposed to high leverage on exchanges.

DOGE is currently in two large liquidation pools: one near $0.50, related to Shorts positions, and another below $0.35. Overall, there is a slight advantage for Long positions, but regardless of the future price direction, this will result in significant liquidations. As for PEPE, its main liquidation pool is below the current price, as many traders were liquidated on December 7th following a big pump, leaving Long liquidations as the largest current concentration.
In summary, both DOGE and PEPE are in a critical moment, with liquidation pools that could trigger volatile price movements, no matter which direction the market takes.

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$DOGE $PEPE

The 30-day Open Interest delta across all exchanges is starting to decline.

This indicates that, as the year-end approaches, investors are closing their positions.

Historically, a drop in Open Interest is associated with price declines.

However, we must monitor it closely, as within 24 hours, $1.7 billion returned to leverage, according to the daily Open Interest delta.

This contributed to BTC returning to the $101k range. If more interest returns in the coming days, it is likely that BTC will continue its upward trend, and the 30-day delta will stop falling.

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⚠️SOPR Trend Signal has yet to indicate a sell signal for Bitcoin, but it's almost there

Historically, the SOPR Trend Signal has been an excellent metric for evaluating trend changes in Bitcoin's price in a fascinating way!

When the metrics cross below a certain threshold, clear buy signals are shown, and when they cross above a certain level, sell signals are plotted.

Currently, the metrics are very close, and if the blue line crosses below the orange line, a sell signal will be indicated. This would suggest that investors have distributed enough, and a trend change is imminent. Additionally, this can occur with a few days of delay—meaning when the metrics cross, it indicates that the local top has occurred and the price will follow a new trend, which in this case is downward!

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Addresses with 100 to 1000 BTC are the Only Ones Accumulating!

Meanwhile, all other addresses are in Distribution, meaning they are selling their BTC.

However, there’s an interesting twist in this story. Since the end of 2020, addresses holding 100 to 1000 BTC have shown a strong correlation with Bitcoin’s price action. In other words, when they accumulate, we see upward price movements, and when they distribute, price declines are observed.

Even though price action may take days or weeks to materialize, this address category seems to best represent what we call Whales or Market Makers, as we know that most addresses holding over 1000 BTC belong to Exchanges.

Thus, this category seems to better represent institutional action compared to other cohorts.

Currently, we refer to these addresses as "🐬The Dolphins," and they accumulated about 344k BTC at their peak on December 6, over a 60-day period. In the past week, they distributed around 11K BTC, which likely had a direct impact on recent volatility.

But it's still too early to say that they’ve stopped accumulating, so it’s crucial to track Onchain metrics daily!

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🚨 Altcoins Underperforming in the Short Term! 🚨
In the short and medium term, the Altcoin Season shows signs of weakening. Altcoins have been underperforming compared to Bitcoin (BTC), with BTC dominance rising even as its price declines. This movement suggests that funds are migrating from altcoins to Stablecoins or BTC, leaving the altcoin market more vulnerable.

🔍 Adjustment cycles are normal
During BTC's bull cycles, it’s common for altcoins to lose part or even all of their recent gains. While BTC maintains high price levels, many altcoins give back previous highs.

📉 December and market uncertainty
Historically, December is known for market indecision. For instance, in December 2020, XRP gave back all the gains it achieved in November, recovering only in February 2021. These movements are often driven by Market Makers, who push prices down to liquidate positions, trigger stop losses, and generate fear before a new rally begins.

⚠️ Risk management is key
Altcoin bull and bear cycles tend to be short, making profit-taking a challenge. Diversifying between BTC, altcoins, and stablecoins is crucial to reduce risk and capitalize on opportunities.

💡 Stay alert to market movements and protect your capital.
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#DUMP #ALTCOINS

We’ve added Risk and Return Analysis for 1700 Cryptocurrency Pairs!
Now, you can assess the risk of over 1700 cryptocurrency pairs using the adjusted Sharpe Ratio and Normalized Risk Metric (NRM), two powerful metrics to measure an asset's risk.
🔍 Sharpe Ratio: The adjusted Sharpe Ratio measures an asset’s performance by dividing its expected return by its volatility. It shows the return per unit of risk, helping to identify assets with a higher risk-adjusted return. The higher the Sharpe Ratio, the better the risk-adjusted return.
📈 Normalized Risk Metric (NRM): The NRM normalizes an asset’s volatility and risk, comparing it to its historical performance. This provides a consistent risk assessment, regardless of price movement magnitude, enabling fairer comparisons between assets, especially in volatile markets.
Additionally, you can evaluate risk with pairs of Stablecoins, various fiat currencies (USD, EUR, TRY, BRL, etc.), and cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, BNB, and more, across timeframes ranging from 1 minute to weekly.
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The number of addresses holding more than 10 BTC has risen rapidly in recent days. However, addresses with over 10K BTC have been decreasing rapidly.

This could indicate several things:

1. Addresses holding more than 10 BTC often represent institutional players, sharks, miners, and others.

2. On the other hand, addresses with over 10K BTC are mostly owned by exchanges, funds, whales, and long-term investors (Long-Term Holders).

Other possibilities may exist, but generally, major exchanges hold the largest BTC addresses in terms of quantity.

Thus, there has been evident institutional interest recently, and sharks have been more active as BTC approached the $100K price level. This activity caused many BTC to migrate from the largest addresses to smaller ones, such as those holding 10 BTC or more.

These metrics spark curiosity about what’s happening behind the scenes on the blockchain and help us understand the dynamics between these large addresses.

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The number of Bitcoin Onchain transactions above $100,000 USD has reached the same level as in 2021. This reflects that whales are highly interested in moving their Bitcoin on the blockchain. Historically, high numbers of large transactions have reflected bullish periods and local tops. However, nothing has surpassed the 2017 bull cycle, which saw an average of 74k transactions. Currently, the number is similar to 2021, with daily averages ranging from 20k to 25k transactions!

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The difference between BID and ASK in the Spot market across various Bitcoin exchanges has continued to decrease in the short term whenever BTC approaches $100k. Currently, the recorded difference is -139 USD, reflecting stronger selling pressure.

The Difference Bid-Ask Mean Price Spot (USD) measures the difference between the average buy order price (BID) and the average sell order price (ASK) in the Spot market, using the dollar as a reference.
This metric helps identify the balance between buying and selling pressure in the market. Positive values indicate stronger buying pressure, while negative values suggest a higher volume of sell orders.
It is a valuable tool for analyzing Spot market sentiment and understanding how buyers and sellers are positioned, especially during periods of high volatility or at key price levels, such as $100k for Bitcoin.

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$BTC #Spot #Sentiment

Movements on the Blockchain are once again showing signs of distribution and profit-taking.

According to The On-Chain CapFlow Sentiment Index, Bitcoin has re-entered a zone where blockchain activity indicates distribution signals. However, this trend could persist for several days, as observed in previous cycles.

Additionally, based on the SOPR metric, one of the largest profit-taking events in BTC's history is being observed, suggesting that many holders are seizing the opportunity to realize gains.

This trend may continue for some time, with metric adjustments expected in the coming months. The MVRV Z-Score and Long-Term Realized Cap Impulse suggest that Bitcoin’s uptrend is likely to persist, though corrections and metric reconfigurations are common along the way.

For the price to enter an extreme overbought zone, Bitcoin would need to reach at least $122k USD, according to the Alpha Price metric. This powerful tool estimates realized price regions with high accuracy.

In summary, we are witnessing significant profit-taking, especially by long-term holders, which could lead to corrections over time. However, it’s likely that the next all-time high will only occur when more sensitive metrics for peaks and troughs enter the extreme euphoria zone—something that may take several months to materialize.

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Cryptocurrency Market Witnesses One of the Largest Liquidations in History!
In the past week alone, over $795M USD in leveraged Bitcoin positions were liquidated—levels not seen since 2020. Remarkably, more than 2/3 of this amount came from long positions.
In just the last 24 hours, a staggering $845M was liquidated across the market, with the largest liquidations occurring in cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, DOGE, WLD, SUI, and OL.
An interesting fact is that many altcoins have already regained their local price peaks, such as ETH, while Bitcoin remains below 100k at the time of this post.
This indicates that traders are betting on altcoin rallies, causing Bitcoin dominance to decline once again!

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Long-Term Holders are no longer interested in BTC, while Short-Term Holders accumulated during the last rally!

In bull cycles, it’s common for Long-Term Holders to distribute their coins and send them to exchanges. Meanwhile, Short-Term Holders contribute more to short-term demand, having a greater influence on price action. Essentially, they accumulate, and the price tends to respond positively.
The key point of attention lies with Holders of up to 1 month. When this investor profile accumulates a significant amount of Bitcoin, it often signals market euphoria and has historically marked local tops, which opens the door for price corrections at any moment.
While it’s impossible to precisely predict when this will happen, recent data shows an increase in this group. However, the levels are still far from those observed in 2017 and 2021. This indicates room for further accumulation by these new investors, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price even higher.
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📊 Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD): The Ultimate Metric for Bitcoin Price Bottoms!
CVDD is one of the most precise metrics for identifying Bitcoin price bottoms. We took it a step further and created a channel based on CVDD, featuring multiple lines that impressively map support and resistance zones throughout Bitcoin's history.

📉 What's happening now?
Recently, Bitcoin tested the CVDD x 3.618 line, a level derived from the Fibonacci ratio. This line has played a critical role in the past, marking both local tops and bottoms.
💡 Currently, the CVDD x 3.618 sits at $100,220 USD. If the price breaks above this region, it could pave the way for extremely high levels. However, the current behavior resembles the end of 2020.
⚠️ Alternative scenario: If BTC fails to hold this level, we might see a pullback to the $73.8K to $79K range, which would act as support on lower lines.
🧐 Are we on the verge of a new all-time high, or could we face a retracement like in 2019?

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Altcoins Continue Diverging from Bitcoin's Movement

According to the Correlation Heatmap, many altcoins have been rallying while Bitcoin remains sideways in this early December.

The Payment Altcoins category has been one of the top performers in recent days, driven mainly by XRP, BCH, LTC, COTI, ACH, XNO, PUNDIX, UTK, and DASH.

It's common to see Bitcoin price corrections when altcoins experience significant gains—a natural market movement. However, it's also possible for Bitcoin to rise again, with altcoins climbing even higher. To navigate this, it’s essential to closely monitor Alpha metrics.

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Market Makers Should Take Partial Profits in Altcoins

The Altcoins Season Index reveals an interesting scenario for investors: over the past 60 days, most altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin. This suggests a significant appreciation of altcoins compared to the leading cryptocurrency. However, even if the market continues to rise, Bitcoin's dominance could lead to a temporary local bottom, indicating that BTC might regain strength in the short term.

Moreover, the dominance of all stablecoins has remained at the same level as at the beginning of 2024, making it favorable to take profits in altcoins and convert them into stablecoins. This move could provide greater security and stability to the portfolio, especially for those exposed to altcoins that have experienced strong gains.

Therefore, an interesting strategy would be to take partial profits in altcoins and increase exposure to Bitcoin and stablecoins, capitalizing on the favorable moment, especially for those holding altcoins that have appreciated significantly.

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#Altcoins #Crypto

Long-Term Holders (LTH) have distributed a significant amount of BTC at a profit, increasing short-term selling pressure. This trend is clearly reflected in the Long Term Holders SOPR indicator.

Additionally, the Long Term Holders NUPL Heatmap reveals that these holders’ addresses remain in extreme profit levels since late 2023. This increases the likelihood of further profit-taking, as seen at the beginning of 2024 and again now.

It’s important to note that this distribution phase by Long-Term Holders can extend over several months, as observed in all previous cycles. This underscores their strategy of capitalizing on bullish cycles to move and realize profits from BTC held inactive for over 155 days. It’s an excellent approach, as it increases the chances of selling BTC at high prices with substantial profit margins.

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Solana Faces a Liquidation Nightmare!
In the short term, bears are likely to be liquidated around $247 to $252.
However, over the past month, a significant number of long positions remain unliquidated. Levels like $210 and below $200 hold the highest concentration of liquidations across exchanges.
There’s also a final pool of short positions near $267.

Given these characteristics, we consider SOL less favorable for medium-term exposure. After breaking its all-time high, it now faces a sea of pending liquidations driven by excessive leverage. Other projects offer better risk-reward profiles in the short term!

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#SOL #SOLANA #Altcoins

The Onchain volume of Whales is still at its lowest level.

There have not yet been significant Onchain transaction movements above $100k USD on the Blockchain, as observed in 2017 and 2021.

This is another sign that euphoria among the big players hasn't occurred yet!

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