On-chain data indicates that the amount of BTC held by long-term holders has reached a short-term low and is beginning to accumulate again. Historical data suggests that during periods of BTC price decline or slow growth, the supply held by long-term holders tends to accumulate. When BTC prices rise rapidly, long-term holders start distributing their holdings to make profits. When a new round of accumulation begins, BTC prices will rise again until the supply held by long-term holders reaches a short-term bottom, indicating that BTC has also reached a short-term peak at the current price.
The supply of long-term and short-term holders is defined based on the average purchase date of entities, with weights given by a logarithmic function centered on the age of 155 days and a transition width of 10 days.
Future BTC Trends: Industry Experts' Insights
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of FX and Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank:
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of FX and Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated on Thursday, "As the U.S. election approaches, I expect Bitcoin to reach $100,000. If Trump wins, it will reach $150,000 by the end of the year. The Biden administration has shown pragmatism recently by approving an Ethereum spot ETF, but Biden later vetoed efforts to repeal SAB 121. Thus, Trump remains more favorable than Biden."
Jenny Johnson, CEO of Franklin Templeton:
Jenny Johnson, CEO of Franklin Templeton, believes that we are still in the early stages of the Bitcoin investment cycle, and large institutional funds have not yet fully deployed capital into this asset class. Johnson said, "This is indeed the first wave of early adopters, and I believe the next wave will be larger institutions."
Philip Swift, Founder of LookIntoBitcoin:
Philip Swift, founder of the on-chain data platform LookIntoBitcoin, shared his latest analysis on June 5, showing that global liquidity (M2) is approaching $100 trillion, which will be a favorable condition for Bitcoin's price increase in 2024.
Arthur Hayes, Founder of BitMEX:
Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, published his latest article "Group of Fools," indicating that central banks around the world have begun to ease monetary policies. These policy changes by central banks will drive the cryptocurrency market out of the summer doldrums. Go long on Bitcoin, then go long on altcoins. It's time to redeploy excess dollar liquidity into altcoins. The crypto bull market is awakening.
Analysts at QCP Capital:
Analysts at the crypto asset trading company QCP Capital stated that the already released U.S. unemployment claims report and the upcoming CPI report next week could be the catalysts for Bitcoin to reach an all-time high. Additionally, the potential for interest rate cuts could further drive Bitcoin higher.