Let me first say I don't want to argue with BTC bulls. All I want to do is discuss the properties of trends. We happen to be relating them to BTC and happen to be looking at a bear trend.
In the last new high and drop in BTC, something new happened. BTC made a big drop, and when a new high was made, there was no follow-through extension.
This was the first time that'd happened.
BTC bulls were very confident in 100K at the high because every time a high has broken, there's been an extension leg.
During 2022, we heard the phrase "Bitcoin has never..." a lot. Then, in 2022, a lot of these phrases were invalidated.
So, something new has happened in BTC.
Was it an important shift in trend? That's yet to be determined, but if it is, we should be well into the end of the bull trap section of it now.
There's that feeling of "returning to normal.".
We have positive news helping to drive sentiment.
Bears are being squeezed out.
During a bull trend, all of these would be things that can come in a breakout setting up. However, in a bear trend, all of these are dire warnings of things turning sour.
In this 55K–60K zone, I think bulls should be very careful. If a bull breakout is made, there's probably a simple enough long entry around the same price later.
If the failure to extend in a new trend leg and break of the last low in 2022 was a reversal of the macro BTC uptrend, then we'd currently be in what would become the worst rug pull setup in the history of BTC.
