According to Cointelegraph, Ether (ETH) experienced an 8.8% gain between Oct. 14 and Oct. 15, but faced resistance at the $2,650 level. Traders are increasingly concerned as Ether's aggregate futures open interest reached an all-time high on Oct. 16, which could signal a potential price correction. The demand for leveraged ETH positions has surged, with the aggregate Ether futures market surpassing 5 million ETH for the first time on Oct. 15, a 12% increase from four weeks prior.
Historically, higher demand for ETH futures has not always been bearish. The key insight is whether system-wide leverage is expanding or contracting. Larger bets increase the potential for sudden price movements due to forced liquidations. Derivatives markets, despite appearing zero-sum, significantly impact spot prices due to higher trading volumes and the reliance of whales and market makers on derivatives for quick hedging. Forced liquidations in futures markets can lead to cascading liquidations in spot markets, accelerating price movements.
On Aug. 2, when Ether's aggregate open interest last peaked, ETH's price dropped 31.7% in less than four days. The current market situation mirrors the structure from August, with open interest peaking at 4.75 million ETH, a 15% increase from four weeks earlier. Historical evidence suggests that peak formations in Ether’s open interest typically precede strong price corrections.
The broader cryptocurrency market trends, including Bitcoin's performance, may influence Ether's price. If the overall market remains neutral, a 20% to 25% crash in Ether's price to around $1,960 is possible. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above the $70,000 resistance level, the increased leverage in Ether could lead to bullish momentum and potential price appreciation.
