According to CoinDesk: Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index are predicted to end the third quarter with losses as bonds grow increasingly appealing, their most attractive since 2009.
Bitcoin, currently valued at $26,100, shows a third-quarter decrease of 14%, assuming the losses persist through to September 30th. The S&P 500, the global risk asset yardstick that includes cryptocurrencies, ended at $4,320.05 on Friday, showing a near 3% drop for the third quarter.
The equity risk premium—a metric indicating the gap between the S&P 500’s earnings yield and the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note—has dropped to -0.58, the lowest it has been since 2009. This indicates that the relative return from investing in safe-haven government bonds is higher than that of stocks and risk assets, reducing the attractiveness of these investments.
This shift could also impact Bitcoin, often regarded as digital gold by crypto advocates. High bond yields may disincentivize investment in a zero-yielding risk asset such as Bitcoin. Alex McFarlane, the co-founder of Keyring Network,notes that "Bitcoin will be adversely affected by a high USD risk-free rate due to portfolio rebalancing".
