Recently, many people have been asking: Will there still be a bull market?
I want to share a story to help everyone understand the current stage of the market.
A friend from a brokerage firm told me: many of his colleagues are unreliable and frequently collude with listed companies to create false messages that mislead investors. This pattern of short-term trading is prevalent in various markets, and the transaction fees are easily pocketed by them.
In this market game, bulls are hoping for a bull market, while bears wish for a prolonged bear market. Institutions continuously release information to stir up the market, aiming to control the emotions of both sides. When bears increase, the market creates temptations for more people to go long; conversely, when bullish sentiment rises, FOMO phenomena occur, providing opportunities for bears to counteract. This ongoing struggle keeps us in a dynamic market environment. Therefore, a wise risk management strategy is to remember that significant rises are always accompanied by significant declines, and one must adjust market expectations in a timely manner.
Now, let’s talk about data. We often say that data is a tool to reveal the truth of the market, but in reality, data manipulation is always in the hands of the top tier of the market. For example, the Federal Reserve's macro management relates to the entire U.S. dollar system, and it relies on data for adjustments. The unemployment rate, GDP, and other economic indicators we see often serve the dollar. But is the U.S. economy really as good as the numbers suggest? If it were, why would there be a new president?
In reality, the economic situation in the U.S. isn’t as optimistic as it seems. The issue of national debt is becoming increasingly serious. When the government is burdened with massive debt and attempts to promise continuously high-interest loans, who would still be willing to lend money? We have to believe that some of the hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve are merely for market expectation management. In the current situation, they may have to cooperate with the government to implement easing policies to respond to the ever-increasing debt.
What I want to emphasize is that data can be both true and false; we need to discern right from wrong and focus on the main contradictions. It’s essential to maintain an optimistic outlook for long-term investments. Currently, liquidity is not lacking; it is merely influenced by market expectations. I hope this story can help everyone better understand the market situation!
