BTC Price Below $100K: How Much Will Bitcoin Be in the Short Term?
Bitcoin has fallen by 5.5% in the last 24 hours, falling below the $100,000 level. This decline occurred despite a 38% increase in trading volume to $67 billion. The decline is due to bearish signals in key metrics such as the 7-day MVRV Ratio and increased whale activity. Both are currently indicating increased selling pressure.
While BTC’s EMA lines are showing a positive outlook, the rapid decline of short-term EMAs could signal a potential bearish reversal if a death cross occurs. The next few days will be decisive as BTC approaches critical support and resistance levels. This could shape the next directional move.
MVRV Ratio Indicates BTC Could Continue to Fall
The 7-day Market Value Realized (MVRV) Ratio for Bitcoin is currently at -2.63%. This is a significant drop from 5.6% recorded two days ago. The MVRV Ratio measures whether BTC holders are in profit or loss by comparing market value (current price) to realized value (average purchase price).
Negative MVRV values like the current one indicate that BTC holders are, on average, in a loss position. This could indicate a period of market capping or undervaluation.
Past trends suggest that BTC’s 7D MVRV Ratio could fall to -5% or -6% levels before a recovery begins, as was observed between December 20 and December 23.
If this pattern repeats, BTC could experience additional selling pressure in the short term. It could then test lower support levels.
The number of Bitcoin whales holding at least 1,000 BTC reached a monthly high of 2,108 on December 16. However, it fell sharply in one day to 2,061. It is important to monitor whale activity. These large holders can significantly influence the market with their buying or selling behavior.
When whale numbers decrease, it usually indicates profit-taking or declining confidence, which can put downward pressure on prices. Conversely, an increase in whale activity usually reflects accumulation. This signals confidence and potentially supports price stability or growth.
After reaching a monthly low of 2,049 between December 24 and December 26, the number of Bitcoin whales has been steadily recovering, and as of January 7, it stands at 2,059. This gradual increase indicates renewed accumulation by large investors and is a positive sign for market sentiment.
The recovery from the lows may indicate that whales have regained confidence in BTC’s potential upward movement. However, their lack of rapid accumulation may indicate that they are still waiting to see where the BTC price will go.
BTC EMA lines show that the short-term EMAs are still above the long-term ones, which is a positive structure. However, the short-term lines are falling rapidly, indicating weakening momentum.
If this trend continues and a death cross occurs, the short-term EMA crosses below the long-term EMA, which could signal a bearish reversal. In this scenario, the Bitcoin price could test the support at $93,400, and a drop below this level could push the price down further to $91,200.
Conversely, if the current downtrend is halted and positive momentum returns, BTC price could test the resistance at $98,800. A successful break above this level could pave the way for more gains, with $99,900 as the next target.
If this momentum continues, BTC could aim to retest $102,000, potentially signaling a recovery from its recent decline. The outcome will largely depend on whether the buying pressure can counter the bearish signals from the EMA lines.