Bitcoin was hit hard by the negative impact of ISM non-manufacturing PMI and JOLTs job vacancies data, plummeting by $6000.

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Last night, the US employment data was better than expected, and the service industry inflation accelerated. In November, the US JOLTS job vacancies unexpectedly increased by 259,000 to reach 8.098 million. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose from 52.1 in November to 54.1, and the price index rose from 58.2 in November to 64.4, reaching a new high in 11 months, implying that inflation pressure still exists.

Two data points have lowered market expectations for interest rate cuts, mainly due to a reduced probability of rate cuts before July and a contradiction with previous expectations of 2-4 rate cuts by 2025. The market expects a more than 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in January, and BTC has plummeted in response.

BTC's trading volume has been relatively small during the past week's rally, indicating that buying pressure is not strong. Therefore, the market is fragile and easily influenced by external factors. Yesterday's bearish candle not only engulfed the bullish candle of January 6th, but also had a larger trading volume than January 6th, indicating that the current market is dominated by sellers, and the possibility of further decline is relatively high.

The question now is whether it will fall below the previous month's low of 91,500 on the 30th?

The current value of BTCSTH RP is 87645, and the trading volume of last night's decline was quite large, and the selling pressure has obviously increased, so the possibility of falling below 91500 and getting support in STH RP cannot be ruled out.

Next, we need to observe the changes in trading volume as the decline continues. If the trading volume significantly decreases during the continued decline, it indicates a weakening of selling pressure, and the probability of breaking through 91500 will be relatively small;

And if the volume remains high during the continued decline, it means that the selling pressure is still strong, and the probability of falling below 91500 will be relatively high.

Many fans asked if there is a local big pump market next?

To determine whether there is a big pump market, just look at two points:

(1) Trump's policy

(2) Expectations of interest rate cuts.

Trump's policies were not easy to implement in the first few months, so just focus on the interest rate cut expectations. In March, if the interest rate cut expectations decline, BTC altcoins will fall; vice versa.

If the probability is fuzzy, hovering around 40-60%, then the market is oscillating. When it oscillates, one must be prepared for the oscillation, and when you earn a good profit, you should take it, not be greedy.

After some data came out last night, the probability of interest rate cut in March decreased to level 4, and the probability of interest rate cut in May is around level 5. In addition, Bitcoin has rebounded continuously for 8 days, so it is very normal for a pullback, but BTC is still in a oscillation. It is only possible to approach 91500 or even fall below if the probability of interest rate cut in March falls below 20%.

Afterwards, we will focus on the economic data for the 10th and 15th, as well as the speech after the FOMC meeting on the 29th to judge how the market will go.