The largest-ever Bitcoin options expiry is today, meaning traders are bracing for a big payoff.
Investors piled more than $14 billion into contracts that expire on December 27, according to crypto derivatives platform Deribit. The most popular wager is a call option — or bullish bet — that pays off when Bitcoin reaches $90,000.
Traders piled in $730 million on the $90,000 call option.
An option gives the trader the right, but not the obligation, to purchase an underlying asset at a specific price at a later date.
If Bitcoin remains above $95,000, then more than $4 billion are “in the money.” That means an investor can exercise the option to pick up Bitcoin for the preset price, and sell the difference on the open market, when the price is higher.
This could spell more downside to an-already rocky end of year for Bitcoin.
However, some investors say that the record-breaking volume on options are a bullish sign — that could clear the runway for a new all-time high.
“If it’s true that a lot of the market makers are exposed to Bitcoin given how much price movement there has been, then we’re only weeks away from the next major move,” said Mike Alfred, a renowned crypto investor, on a podcast on December 26.
Investors on the sidelines are “waiting” for the options expiry, said Alfred, who noted that the major move will be from the mid-to-low $90,000s up to $120,000 and beyond.
Bitcoin lull
The bullish momentum since Donald Trump’s election in November faded when the Federal Reserve suggested a hawkish outlook for 2025.
Many investors quickly sold the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have since been in a lull, with most shedding double-digits in value.
The volatility may continue, said James Van Straten, senior analyst at CoinDesk.
“We will see a lot of chop,” he said on X.
Still, he told investors, have some perspective: “At the start of the year I would have been ecstatic with anything above $84,000.″
Crypto market movers
Bitcoin rose 1.3% over the past 24 hours to reach $96,873.
Ethereum added 1.4% over the same period to $3,423.
What we’re reading
Four crypto VCs on what will drive an $18bn investment frenzy in 2025 – DL News
Crypto enters its “App era” – Milk Road
The Milk Road awards – Milk Road
How Bitcoin predictions from Cathie Wood, Mike Novogratz, and Michael Saylor played out in 2024 – DL News
Trump Announces Team Working With AI & Crypto Czar: What We Know – Unchained Crypto
Pedro Solimano is a markets correspondent based in Buenos Aires. Got a tip? Email him at psolimano@dlnews.com.
