Bitcoin put options are trading at a 2% discount to their call counterparts, which is in line with the trend of the past two weeks. When whales and market makers anticipate a potential correction, this figure usually exceeds 6%, reflecting the premium on put options.
The recent recovery in traditional financial markets has also been a factor: On Dec. 24, the S&P 500 Index reversed its one-month losses, and #bitcoin contributed to a rally above $98,000. In addition, the yield on 10-year U. S. Treasuries #rose to 4.59% from 4.23% two weeks ago, indicating that investors are seeking higher yields on their government bonds.
The recent rise in U. S. Treasury yields generally reflects expectations of higher inflation and higher government debt. In contrast, equities and scarce assets such as bitcoin often perform better when central banks are forced to stimulate the economy by injecting liquidity. Bitcoin's growth remains limited as investors worry about the risk of global economic stagnation. It is difficult to predict what impact these conditions will have on stock markets and real estate assets. Currently, bitcoin's correlation to the S&P 500 Index is relatively high at 64%.
the U. S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has revised its interest rate forecast downward, reducing the number of rate cuts by 2025 from four to two. This adjustment reduces the immediate risk of lower corporate earnings and potential real estate financing problems.
To assess market sentiment, it is important to analyze the bitcoin margin market. Unlike derivative contracts, which require a seller and a buyer, the margin market allows traders to borrow stablecoin and buy bitcoin on the spot or borrow #BTC and create a short position, betting on the price to fall.
Bitcoin Margin on #OKX The ratio of long to short positions is currently 25 times in favor of long positions (purchases). Historically, this ratio has exceeded 40x due to overconfidence, and levels below 5x in favor of long positions are generally considered bearish.
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