Even After This Week's 12% Drop, Models Show Ethereum Promise

Ethereum's 12% slump hasn't changed experts' long-term optimism. Ethereum has held steady at $3,38 despite market volatility, backed by $28.68 billion in trading volumes.

Short-term adverse sentiment notwithstanding, the Block Subsidy Model and Mayer Multiple suggest Ethereum might rise significantly this cycle, with price forecasts of $7,200 to $11,433.

Block Subsidy Model Targets $11,433
The Block Subsidy Model compares Ethereum's value to its thermocap, or manufacturing cost. Ethereum's first and second cycles had highs 64x and 32x its thermocap.

With declining rewards, the present cycle might peak at 16x the thermocap.

Ethereum has typically started its sharpest growth phase after breaching over 8x.

Analysts estimate $5,716, while the 16x multiple is $11,433. This model predicts Ethereum has space to develop and may reach new highs throughout this cycle.

The Mayer Multiple indicates expansion.
The Mayer Multiple uses multipliers to determine overbought or oversold Ethereum prices versus their 200-day MA. Ethereum had peaks over 2.4x and lows below 0.8x in previous cycles.

ETH tried 0.8x during this cycle—in June 2022 and September 2024—repeating prior cycles. The $7,200 2.4x multiplier is a milestone. This level will set a new record for Ethereum if past patterns continue.

Ethereum has challenges in the immediate term despite good long-term growth indications. A falling trendline around $3,400 is halting positive momentum.

This trendline crosses a $3,500–$3,555 supply zone, becoming resistance.

$3,252 is immediate support, followed by $3,097 and $2,940. Breaking over $3,555 might start positive momentum, while failing to do so could lead to consolidation or decreases. RSI 41 indicates neutral-to-bearish attitude.

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