Bitcoin’s potential to reach and sustain the $100,000 level is tied to the upcoming $11.8 billion options expiry set for December 27 at 8:00 am UTC. Current data reveals a notable edge for call (buy) options, though bearish investors may still limit losses if Bitcoin’s price remains below $75,000.
As of now, call options hold an open interest of $7.9 billion, while put (sell) options lag behind at $3.92 billion, largely affected by Bitcoin’s 29% price surge since October, which has diminished the value of most put options.
Options platform Deribit leads with a 74% market share, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Binance at 10.3% each, with OKX holding 4.3%.
With the expiry date approaching, bulls and bears will have incentives to impact Bitcoin’s spot price, especially as options imbalances at key strike prices come into play.
Potential for a BTC Rally Post-Expiry
President-elect Donald Trump’s victory has bolstered investor confidence, particularly due to his pro-crypto campaign pledges, including replacing U.S. SEC Chair Gary Gensler and the election of numerous pro-crypto legislators. A pro-Bitcoin mining administration could ease regulatory restrictions, potentially paving the way for a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” and directing law enforcement to hold, rather than liquidate, seized BTC. Notably, Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced legislation aiming to amass up to 1 million BTC for U.S. reserves.
The December options expiry is a critical event, with aggregate open interest at $11.8 billion. Bitcoin’s recent rise above $80,000 has weakened bearish positions, lowering their potential impact at expiry.
If Bitcoin trades around $88,000 on December 27, only about $96 million of put options will remain relevant, as the option to sell at $85,000 becomes ineffective when BTC trades above that level at expiry.
This expiration could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s price, with the potential to move closer to the highly anticipated $100,000 mark.