Republicans are on track to win the US House of Representatives, completing a sweep that could see the party control the Congress and Presidency for the first time since 2019. According to Polymarket data, the party could secure a majority of 221 – 214 in the House.
The GOP has already secured a majority in the Senate with a 53 – 46 split, and a sweep is imminent with the House now all but certain. Expectations are high about how the party’s control at the federal level will impact crypto regulations over the next four years.
Many believe that this control will allow Republicans to pass most of Donald Trump’s policies, including those that impact the crypto industry. There are already speculations about how the president-elect could overhaul regulatory agencies by appointing pro-crypto executives in his administration, thereby enabling a change in regulatory approach.
At the center of this speculation is who will become the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair. Robinhood chief legal officer Dan Gallagher is currently the favorite of many crypto stakeholders. Gallagher was an SEC commissioner between 2011 and 2015. However, other names, such as Paul Atkins and Robert Stebbins, have been involved in different roles with the SEC.
Meanwhile, other positions are also up for grabs, including the Treasury Secretary and potentially the Federal Reserves and Federal Deposit Insurance Commission board when the current heads’ tenure expires. According to Polymarket, Scott Bessent currently has the best odds of becoming the Treasury Secretary, and there are reports that he is crypto-friendly.
Crypto stakeholders flex influence after US election wins
Although Republicans might have swept Congress, the crypto industry is the biggest winner in this election, reaping massively on its financial investments. Crypto Super PAC Fairshake, which spent $135 million backing over 50 Congress candidates, has already recorded an overwhelming victory. As of November 8, 48 out of the 48 candidates supported by Fairshake won their elections, and StandWithCrypto shows that 257 pro-crypto candidates got elected in the House.
While not all the races have been called, the overwhelming victory by most crypto-backed candidates now means that crypto will have significant representation in Congress.
In perhaps the biggest upset of the senatorial race, Fairshake-backed Bernie Moreno defeated the incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown, vocally anti-crypto, in a tight race by 50.2%. Crypto supporters have touted the win as evidence that it has the political capital to unseat anyone.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said:
“DC received a clear message that being anti-crypto is a good way to end your career, as it doesn’t represent the will of the voters, who are disaffected by the current financial system and want change.”
Unsurprisingly, the industry was one of the biggest spenders in the last election. Public Citizen reported that the industry spent $119 million directly on influencing federal elections for Republican and Democratic candidates who are pro-crypto.
Overall, crypto companies contributed 48% of all corporate donations in the 2024 election, $248 million. The industry is now second only to Fossil fuel companies in total spending on elections since the Supreme Court ruling on political spending in 2010.
Standard Chartered predicts a $10 trillion crypto market by 2026
With Republicans now controlling Congress and the presidency, market analysts believe the crypto industry might be set for a $10 trillion market cap. Standard Chartered analysts led by Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, believe the Republicans will quickly advance pro-crypto policies.
He said:
“We expect regulatory and other changes in 2025 and 2026 to further legitimise the digital assets industry, ‘lifting all boats’ and supporting the emergence of new ones.”
The bank also predicted stablecoins could reach a market cap of as high as $1 trillion by 2026 due to the expected institutional interest they will attract in the coming years. This expectation might not be far-fetched, given that several institutional players are already interested in stablecoins.
Standard Chartered has also predicted that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, but it expects the flagship asset market share to drop from its current 60% to 40%. Kendrick believes this will happen because smart contract platforms such as Solana and Ethereum will see more practical applications that will boost the value of their native tokens.
Meanwhile, the crypto market has already seen a massive growth spurt over the past few days since Trump won. Bitcoin is at a new all-time high above $79,000, and the crypto market cap is at 2.84 trillion after rising 21% in the last seven days.
