Currently, the New York Times "Needle" indicates a potential second term for Donald Trump. This election model provides real-time predictions, estimating the race's outcome based on polling data, reported votes so far, and expectations for remaining ballots.
As Poynter notes, "The predictive tool, widely ridiculed after swinging dramatically in the 2016 race and underestimating Trump’s chances, never really went away. After adjustments, it accurately predicted a turbulent Alabama Senate race in 2017 and has been used for both primary and general elections since."
Unlike most election calls, which hold off until a clear winner emerges, the Needle offers real-time probability estimates as results unfold. In contrast, major election data services like AP VoteCast and Edison Research wait until they are nearly certain of the winner—particularly crucial in a highly contentious year like this one.