BlockBeats News, November 4th - The Complex Decision Analysis Center at Fudan University has released the results of a 2024 U.S. presidential election prediction based on computer simulation. The results show that Trump is highly likely to win the U.S. presidency again (with a probability of over 60%).
The research team stated that the prediction is mainly based on Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) simulation technology. Our prediction consists of three steps: (1) Through ABM-based simulation prediction, we obtained the vote distribution of 8 key states in the U.S. and the allocation of electoral votes (limited to a budget constraint, we selected 8 key states); (2) Through 1 million rounds of Monte Carlo simulation, we obtained the tracking poll predictions and electoral vote allocation for the remaining 42 states and the District of Columbia; (3) The two results were combined to finally derive the overall prediction for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Fudan's ABM prediction covers eight key states (these eight states are those where the difference between the Democratic and Republican parties in the 2020 election was less than 5%). The specific predictions for the 8 key states (based on ABM simulation predictions) are as follows: Trump will win Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Wisconsin. Harris will win Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. (Finance Magnates)