In March 2024, Bitcoin reached $73,000, a record. Since BTC's high, cryptos have been on a slow slump that won't break.
Bitcoin has moved less than 20% monthly for seven months. It has not fluctuated more than 20% since February. If that pattern continues in October, BTC will have moved nothing for eight months.
Bitcoin's only other extended flat period occurred before a huge breakthrough. Cryptos rallied dramatically during the following year. We are cautiously hopeful that history will recur.
In March 2024, Bitcoin reached $73,000, a record. This occurred after the first Bitcoin ETF approvals and before the Fourth Halving, two factors predicted to boost cryptos. Since BTC's high, cryptocurrencies have been in a slow decay that won't stop.
Cryptos falter every time they attempt to break out of this downtrend and resume the ‘boom cycle’.
One letdown after another. We note three big unsuccessful breakout attempts since March's high: May, July, and August.
Cryptos may finally break out for good this time.
The Long-Awaited Crypto Rally
No doubt, the crypto market has been in a slow downturn, unable to break above resistance.
But the glass-half-full view? Despite this annoying trend, cryptos have not plummeted.
Bitcoin is also likely to stay below 20% in October for the ninth month in a row. Bitcoin has moved less than 20% monthly for seven months. It has not fluctuated more than 20% since February. If that pattern continues in October, BTC will have moved nothing for eight months.
This is rare for Bitcoin.
We found just one instance of eight straight months with a monthly change below 20% for Bitcoin. That was late summer 2015. BTC stayed around $250 from February to September 2015, without breaking out.
The breakout followed. Bitcoin rose 40% in October 2015. It quadrupled the next year.
Bitcoin's only previous flat period occurred before a massive BTC breakthrough. Cryptos rallied dramatically during the following year.
Each of May, July, and August's “failed” breakout efforts saw Bitcoin retake significant moving averages once and then lose them.
It regained the 50- and 100-day moving averages in mid-May, lost them in mid-June, and fell.
Bitcoin regained the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages mid-July, lost them in early August, and continued sliding.
Bitcoin retook all three moving averages in late August, lost them days later, and continued sliding.
However, in autumn 2024... Late September saw Bitcoin surpass all three main moving averages. Lost all three in early October... is retaking all three.
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