U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris’ odds of winning the upcoming November election on crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket rose following the presidential debate on Tuesday night. Now Harris and former president Donald Trump are at a tie on Polymarket’s $860 million market.
Tuesday night saw the first and likely last presidential debate between Harris and Trump before the election, where numerous recurring topics such as the war in Gaza and abortion rights were discussed, with no mention of crypto. Bettors on Polymarket placed a 94% chance that Harris won tonight’s debate in polls, which are yet to be disclosed.
Harris’ chance of winning the presidential election rose from 46% Monday night to 49% on Polymarket, while Trump’s odds fell from 52% to 49%. Trump has been vocal in expressing pro-crypto opinions, while Harris has started engaging with the crypto sector, though she has yet to take a solid stance on the industry.
Min Jung, an analyst of Presto Research, told The Block that while the debate did not specifically mention crypto, the odds in favor of Harris are rising on Polymarket, “which might be seen as less favorable for the crypto market.”
Bitcoin briefly grew above the $58,000 mark and stayed at higher levels in the hours leading up to the debate, but dipped to lows of around $56,700 during the debate. It is now trading at $56,797, according to The Block’s bitcoin price page.
Justin d'Anethan, head of APAC business development of crypto market maker Keyrock, said that bitcoin was more of a “dispassionate observer” as the debate unfolded. “The crypto market is watching but not reacting — at least, not yet. Bitcoin continues to behave like any other risk asset, moving in tandem with tech stocks and growth equities, searching for direction amidst a cocktail of inflation fears, rate uncertainty, and global political turbulence.”
“The debate itself is undoubtedly a significant moment, setting the tone for the likely battle between two different visions of America's future,” d'Anethan added. “For bitcoin, though, it will need something more concrete. As things stand, bitcoin seems to be waiting for a catalyst — a jolt from either the macroeconomic front, like an unexpected change in Fed policy, or something seismic from the political arena, such as a scandal or a surprising turn in election polling.”
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PolitiFi coins dipped
PolitiFi coins inspired by Trump and Harris fell over the past hour. Super Trump (Ticker: STRUMP), which has a market capitalization of $13.8 million, plunged 6.8% in the past hour, while Kamala Horris (KAMA) dipped 5.7%, according to CoineGecko data. MAGA (TRUMP) edged down 0.2%.
“The market is showing a knee-jerk reaction to seemingly a better-than-expected performance by Harris in the debate so far,” said Peter Chung, head of research at Presto. “This is clear from the timing of the PolitiFi coins’ big moves, which all started soon after 9pm EST, which is when the debate started.”
D'Anethan of Keyrock said that the PolitiFi coins could see some volatility spikes “as the debate continues to reverberate and Twitter feeds buzz with partisan fervor.”
“Speculators are likely to exploit any perceived sentiment shifts in the immediate aftermath, but with low liquidity and dwindling attention, any such moves are likely to be fleeting at best,” d'Anethan added.
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