Bitcoin is a “Trump trade,” according to analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein — and the outcome of November’s U.S. presidential election could “determine the destiny of the industry.”
If the Republican candidate Donald Trump wins, analysts expect bitcoin to reclaim new highs and reach close to the $80,000 to $90,000 range by the end of Q4. However, in the event of a victory for current Vice President Kamala Harris, they predict bitcoin to break the current $50,000 floor and head back to test the $30,000 to $40,000 range where the spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds momentum began, Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia wrote in a note to clients on Monday.
Explaining their reasoning for the divergence, the analysts said that although attempts have been made to reach out to both sides of the political spectrum, the crypto industry has received “more warmth” from the Trump side. “While crypto industry leaders have been more open-minded with the Harris campaign, and are hoping for a more constructive policy, we expect the delta between the two political outcomes to be wide.”
The crypto market has faced a tough regulatory environment recently, with justified actions against frauds like FTX and Luna, Chhugani, Sapra and Chindalia said. However, subsequent actions against major crypto companies like Coinbase and Uniswap have eroded trust and pushed the industry into partisan debates, they argued.
The clarity and tone on crypto policy have also been very different, the analysts noted. Trump has been vocal about making the U.S. “the bitcoin and crypto capital of the world,” mentioning it in various speeches and outlining policies including making the U.S. a Bitcoin mining “powerhouse,” appointing a crypto-friendly SEC chair and creating a national strategic bitcoin reserve. In contrast, Harris has not addressed crypto in any of her speeches or policy statements.
Crypto-friendly election outcome, positive regulatory environment ‘not priced in’
The crypto market has faced significant challenges over the past three years, with high interest rates draining liquidity from decentralized finance platforms and regulatory hurdles stifling innovation, the analysts said. Despite this, bitcoin has shown resilience, rising 112% over the past year.
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A favorable regulatory environment could remove risk barriers for financial institutions to participate, the analysts argued — helping digital assets to compete with traditional assets for institutional flows and spurring innovation.
U.S. presidential odds have seen a recent reversal on the decentralized predictions platform Polymarket, with Trump now back in the lead by five percentage points with a 52% chance of victory compared to Harris’ 47%. Among the critical swing states, Trump currently outpaces Harris in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania on the platform, while Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin.
However, national polling data is still mixed. “Elections remain hard to call, but if you are long crypto here, you are likely taking a Trump trade,” the analysts said.
U.S. presidential election winner, Polymarket odds. Image: Bernstein.
Bernstein previously set a $200,000 bitcoin price target for the end of 2025, $500,000 by the end of 2029 and $1 million by the end of 2033.
Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies.
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