Around 13,500 Bitcoin options contracts are due for expiry on Friday, September 6, with a notional value of around $776 million.
Today’s options expiry is relatively small compared to last week’s end-of-month expiry, so the impact on spot markets is likely to be minimal.
Bitcoin Options Expiry
This week’s tranche of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.82, which means there are slightly more long (call) contracts expiring than shorts (puts).
Open interest, or the number of value of contracts yet to expire, is still high at strike prices of $70,000 and $75,000, according to Deribit.
Additionally, there is around $720 million in OI at the $90,000 strike price and still $913 million at the $100,000 strike price, suggesting the bulls are still hanging in there for a rally to the north.
Bitcoin OI by expiry. Source: Deribit
On Sept. 5, crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live commented that market confidence is continuing to wane.
“In terms of options data, the major term Skews are all veering in bearish, and implied volatility is slightly higher. Overall, the options market’s expectations for the future are skewed toward short-term negativity.”
It added that there are expected positive events in the near term and September has been a weaker month as well.
In addition to this week’s Bitcoin options, there are around 126,000 Ethereum options expiring with a notional value of $304 million. These contracts have a put/call ratio of 0.63.
Overall, options activity is waning as market sentiment continues to fall. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has now slipped back into “extreme fear,” with the asset falling below $56,000 again.
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 22. Extreme FearCurrent price: $56,159 pic.twitter.com/jyrtLakbIi
— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) September 6, 2024
Crypto Market Outlook
Another day in the red has seen total market capitalization decline by a further 3% on the day to $2.08 trillion. It is now back at its lowest level since the Black Monday crash on Aug. 5.
Bitcoin dumped to an intraday low of $55,800 during early trading in Asia on Friday. However, it has since recovered to $56,300 at the time of writing.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes was bearish, predicting a weekend dump:
“BTC is heavy, I’m gunning for sub $50k this weekend. I took a cheeky short.”
The rest of the market is in an equally bad place, with most of the high-cap altcoins shedding a couple of percent today.
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