Economists at global investment giant Goldman Sachs have cut their probability of a recession in the United States within the next year to 20%, citing recent retail sales and unemployment data.
In an Aug. 17 report to its clients seen by Bloomberg, Goldman’s economist, led by Jan Hatzius, said the probability is down from their previous estimate of 25% and “would probably cut our recession probability back to 15%, where it stood for almost a year” if the US jobs report for August set to publish on Sept. 6 “looks reasonably good.”
The economists added they were “more confident” that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 0.25% when it meets in September but said “another downside jobs surprise on Sept. 6 could trigger” a 0.5% move.
US stocks saw a surge over the past week on the back of July’s retail sales figures beating analyst estimates in the biggest surge since early last year. Labor Department figures released Aug. 15 also show the number of people filing new unemployment benefit applications fell to a one month low the week prior.
What does it mean for Bitcoin?
IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore told Cointelegraph that Goldman’s probability cut was only “a minor tweak” and was unlikely to prompt “a good outbreak of risk-seeking flows across multiple asset classes including crypto.”
10x Research head of research Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin traders “could welcome a rate cut, but there is also a risk that this implies a recession might be coming, and in that case, we would expect Bitcoin to correct lower, as it did in 2019.”
He explained that when the Fed cut interest rates in July 2019, “Bitcoin initially surged by 20%” in a short-lived rally. Thielen added despite the Federal Reserve “implementing two additional rate cuts later that year, Bitcoin ended 2019 down 35% from its peak following the first rate cut.”
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However, some economists don't see the probability lowering at all.
In an Aug. 15 note, JPMorgan Research raised its probability of a US and global recession starting before the end of the year to 35% — up ten percentage points from its outlook in July.
The investment bank’s chief global economist, Bruce Kasman, said there were “hints at a sharper-than-expected weakening in labor demand and early signs of labor shedding,” and business surveys suggest “a loss of momentum in global manufacturing.”
“On the other hand, these forces are being tempered by solid continued gains in overall activity, led by the service sector,” he added.
JPMorgan’s probability of a recession by the end of 2025 remained unchanged at 45%, with Kasman adding it recognized “additional uncertainties related to the political backdrop.”
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