JPMorgan has increased the likelihood of a U.S. recession by the end of 2024 to 35%, up from their previous estimate of 25%. This change is due to a combination of factors:

1. **Global Market Turmoil**: Recent geopolitical concerns triggered a major crash in global markets, with Japan experiencing its worst single-day loss and the U.S. losing $2 trillion in stock market value.

2. **Weaker Economic Data**: The July jobs report showed weaker-than-expected data, indicating potential problems in the labor market.

3. **Broader Economic Uncertainty**: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon highlighted the overall uncertainty in the financial sector and expressed skepticism about the Federal Reserve's ability to manage inflation effectively.

These factors combined have led JPMorgan, along with other institutions like Goldman Sachs, to raise the probability of a recession as economic risks appear to be mounting.

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Source: watcher.guru