Will today's 805 repeat 312?
In the bull market of 2021, many people miss 312 and hope that the bull can come back to pick everyone up; in the next few months of 2024, will everyone miss today's 85 tragedy as much as they miss 312?
Today's market is really miserable. Another anniversary is born. To be honest, today I feel like I'm dreaming of 312. Although the absolute decline is much smaller than 312, it fell from more than 10,000 to 3,800, a drop of 64%, and this wave of decline from 70,000 is less than 30%, so the pure decline is still more severe in 312, but you have to know that the market was still bullish last week, and it was just a weekend. The difference in the number of market participants and funds in the bull and bear markets is still quite large, so the damage caused by this wave of decline to the market is actually no less than 312.
Although I have lost a lot of money in the past two days, there are often more opportunities in desperate situations. You should know that these super anniversaries are event-based, so they have no ability to reverse the trend. Once the event is over, the market will correct the price again. Historically, no matter whether it is 94, 312, 924, 519, etc., the anniversaries have not ended the bull market, and they are often followed by higher-level market conditions. After the domestic withdrawal of 1CO in 94, the market continued to rise by dozens of times. After 312, there was a super bull market in 2021. After 924, the market continued to create ath. The old leeks who have experienced these events should now be able to calmly look at this 85 tragedy. I remember that during the bull market in 2021, there were many such voices in the community, saying that they hope the market will have another 312 crash and give everyone a chance to get on the bus again. So for long-term investors, the 85 tragedy is not an opportunity to pick everyone up, but some people dare to seize it, and some people’s confidence is shattered. This is the charm of the volatile crypto market.
As for the reasons for this plunge, in my opinion, this decline is the result of the combined efforts of various events. The first and the biggest impact on the short-term market is the risk of war. After Israel beheaded the top leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the risk of the expansion of the Middle East war is getting bigger and bigger. US intelligence said that Iran would launch a large-scale military offensive against Israel on Monday. Israeli President Netanyahu also warned Iran that it was ready to counterattack. According to historical practice, we can get the arms costs of the two parties from the currency circle; The second is the US recession crisis. The non-agricultural employment on Friday was far below expectations, while the unemployment rate reached a staggering 4.3%. I remember that some experts said that the unemployment rate of 4.1% was already an unacceptable figure for the government, so this 4.3% unemployment rate directly increased CME's expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut in September to 96%. Even now, many media have begun to predict that before the opening of the US stock market tonight, the Federal Reserve may come up with a wave of emergency rate cuts to save the market. Don't think this is impossible. In fact, the old United States has raised interest rates several times in history. For example, the 2001 Internet bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 new crown crisis, when the most frequent rate cuts were made, a single rate cut of 150 basis points has occurred, so if the Fed rescues the market tonight, the market will most likely reverse;
The third reason is also very important, that is, Trump's winning rate has been declining. At present, Trump's winning rate has fallen to 51%, and Harris still maintains at 44%. You must know that the origin of this wave of market rise is Trump's shooting. After that, Trump's winning rate increased greatly, directly forcing Biden to withdraw from the election. At that time, Trump won the support of all swing states, with a winning rate of more than 90%. Musk personally waved the flag and shouted, and Trump also madly supported encryption. Therefore, a large part of the rise in encryption came from the expectation of Trump's election. Now this expectation is getting lower and lower. Harris's attitude towards encryption is unclear, and it is highly likely that he is not very friendly, so it is very normal for the currency price to pump water;
The fourth is that there are whales in the currency market who are going to sacrifice again. This time it is jump. This guy was actually targeted by the CFTC as early as June 20. Before luna In fact, Jump was hit hard by the thunderbolt incident. Although there are a lot of ETH in its account, it seems to be very large, but its hidden debt should be a lot. The reason for Jump's collapse is that after Japan's interest rate hike, it went long on the yen in the yen exchange rate arbitrage. As a result, the yen had a black swan, and Jump's funding gap finally exceeded its tolerance, so it sold ETH frantically in the currency market to fill the gap. It is said that it smashed more than 400 million dollars of ETH in this wave. At present, 97% of the funds in its account are U. It seems that Jump should leave the market. The founder of bit has come out that Jump is about to fall and liquidate cryptocurrencies; The last reason is that Buffett liquidated nearly 50% of Apple and Bank of America stocks. This operation is considered in the industry to have a greater impact on market confidence than the 4.3% unemployment rate. This is the data from June, which makes everyone think that Buffett saw the US recession in June and completed the operation. The US stock market plummeted on Friday. Almost all stock markets began to plummet in the Asian session today. The Nikkei and South Korea even had circuit breakers. The Nasdaq and S&P futures also plummeted. Buffett's operation has caused huge damage to the confidence in the global stock market. I think it depends on how the US stock market will respond tonight. If the Americans also start to panic, then the chain reaction will cause the currency market to continue to bottom out. If the Federal Reserve launches a rescue operation, or the bottom-fishing sentiment comes up, then the 85 tragedy will become the biggest bottom of this bull market, and the violent bull market in Q4 is still foreseeable.
