For a few months, the data has been positive, and Fed Chairman Powell has started making relatively moderate statements. The year-end trajectory is taking shape. BTC price was lingering at $63,700 at the time of writing, and altcoins turned green. The MTGOX transfer caused a slight drop, but the feared decline did not happen. Maybe it hasn't happened yet.
2024 Year-End Crypto Predictions
When Fed members' interest rate cut predictions were revised downwards for the year-end, we saw rapid declines in crypto. Subsequently, sales in Germany began, and the US Silkroad sale coincided with MTGOX transfers. Good things, like bad things, come one after another. We have seen a Trump-supported rise for a few days, but there could be more.
According to FedWatch data, the expectation of an interest rate cut reached 100% for the September meeting. In other words, the market now definitely expects interest rates to be cut as of September. We mentioned that investors expecting a 150bp cut at the beginning of 2024 were adopting an exaggerated view compared to the Fed's 75bp cut.
For some time, we have seen that the bad inflation data in the first quarter caused more concern than necessary. However, things are getting back on track now. While the latest inflation data indicates a continued decline, we could see at least two rate cuts before the end of the year, contrary to the cautious stance of Fed members. This could increase risk appetite as we approach the September meeting.
September and November Crypto Commentary
In 2021, BTC also broke a new all-time record during the same period. The diminishing impact of MTGOX returns and the strengthening of ETH ETF entries, among many other major events, strengthen hopes for the last quarter. Summarizing these in a few points can help better understand why a rise is expected.
There are elections in November, and Trump is already considered to have won. His pro-crypto stance and near-death experience could make voters support him more than a few months ago. Trump will make some important announcements at a Bitcoin event at the end of this month.
The impact of MTGOX returns is expected to disappear by November.
The effect of post-launch sales in the ETH ETF channel is expected to end, and net entries are expected to continue steadily.
We might see a major financial giant like Vanguard opening the door for BTC ETF for their clients.
The Fed will make its first rate cut.
