When Will the Crypto Market Rise Again?
Current Situation
The recent crypto pessimism has been intensified by the ongoing repayments to Mt.Gox creditors and heightened selling pressure from Bitcoin miners and whales. On-chain data from Glassnode reveals over 21,000 Bitcoins, valued at more than $1.2 billion, were moved to exchanges last week.
Market Activity
Several Bitcoin and Ethereum whales with collateralized loans on decentralized applications were liquidated in the past 24 hours. Additionally, over $636 million has been liquidated from crypto derivatives trading, mainly impacting long traders. The fear and greed index has dropped from 44 (neutral) to 29 (fear) within 24 hours.
Future Outlook
Mt.Gox will continue crypto distributions over the next three months, alongside ongoing Bitcoin sales by the German and U.S. governments, leading to significant market capitulation. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $56k support level, it could find strong support around $52,500.
Bull Cycle Status
While some believe the 2024 bull run might be nearing its top, historical trends suggest the rally isn't over. Analysts compare the 2024 cycle to the 2017 cycle, which saw multiple 25-30% pullbacks before peaking at $20k. Matrixport predicts the market will rally as the U.S. election approaches and interest rate cuts are anticipated, following major stock indexes like the S&P 500.
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