April–May 2025: A Slowdown Signals Trouble
As Q2 2025 began, the U.S. economy showed signs of deceleration.
Real GDP growth for Q1 2025 was revised down to –0.5%, marking the first contraction in over a
year.
Core PCE inflation hovered at 3.1%,
still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, driven by service sector prices
and rising energy costs.
Global investors started turning to alternative stores of value, notably Bitcoin,
which hovered near $92,000 at the time (WSJ)
June 2025: Inflation Heats Up — Tariffs Take Center Stage
In June, a new wave of tariffs imposed by the U.S. — particularly against
Chinese and Mexican goods — started to hit consumers directly.
The New York Fed estimated these tariffs could add nearly 1% to
headline inflation by 2026 (MarketWatch).
Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned: “Someone is going to pay these tariffs, and it usually isn’t the
exporter.”
Despite rising inflation, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at
4.25–4.50%, citing the need for more economic data (Kiplinger)
Impact
on BTC: Bitcoin surged past $100,000, as investors anticipated long-term
monetary easing and hedged against monetary instability.
July 2025: Political Uncertainty Adds Volatility
Mid-July brought political tension:
Former President Donald Trump publicly criticized Jerome Powell
and hinted at replacing him if re-elected.
The market feared a politicized Fed could weaken the dollar, adding fuel to
the BTC rally.
Powell responded by defending the Fed's independence, but volatility
spiked in both equity and crypto markets (WSJ).
BTC briefly corrected to $95,000, before rebounding on ETF-driven inflows.
Institutional Money Fuels Bitcoin in Q3
As of mid-July
U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs saw record quarterly inflows of $12.4 billion, led by BlackRock and
Fidelity.
Corporate treasuries from the tech sector added BTC to their balance sheets
amid dollar weakness concerns.
Bitcoin climbed to a new all-time high of $120,500, outperforming
gold, stocks, and bonds YTD.
What Comes Next? Market Expectations
Looking forward:
Analysts expect the Fed may cut rates in Q4 if inflation shows
sustained cooling.
However, tariff-driven inflation remains a wild card.
A potential Trump victory could bring further uncertainty about Fed
policy and U.S. economic strategy.
BTC Outlook:
Short-term: Volatile but bullish above $100k
Long-term: Macroeconomic hedge amid Fed
uncertainty and tariff-driven inflation
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