The Federal Reserve has just lowered interest rates by 25 basis points but indicated that the possibility of rate cuts next year is low due to persistent inflation and ongoing economic resilience. At the same time, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week.
Is a rate hike coming in the U.S.? If the Trump administration launches a serious trade war against China, the likelihood of a rate hike in 2025 is 30%. Recently, the Federal Reserve made its third interest rate cut for 2024, lowering rates by 25 basis points. The economic landscape is changing. Businesses are already preparing to raise prices to cope with potential tariffs, which may further drive up inflation and indicate the need for further rate hikes.
The U.S. government is also actively restricting investments in China. Last month, the U.S. Treasury finalized investment restriction rules targeting high-tech sectors in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau (including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and semiconductors). The new regulations will take effect on January 2nd next year. The game and battle between the two largest economies in the world, the escalation of trade wars, and the back-and-forth of financial wars will create turbulence and uncertainty in global stock markets. However, the current volatility is actually the result of operators unloading stocks, washing the market, creating panic, and then presenting another opportunity to buy at the bottom. The cryptocurrency market is similarly positioned; the bull market has not ended, but rather the second half has begun. The pullback is merely a step to set off again. There are still about 320 days until the end of the bull market. The unidirectional upward trend should occur between February and May. This pullback allows everyone to enter the market in batches. Then, just hold your coins and wait for the rise. Trump's administration brings certain benefits that are as good as done. This hawkish statement from Federal Reserve Chair Powell is actually meant for the next wave, making the bull market even crazier, creating confusion. This is the last opportunity to buy at the bottom during the bull market retracement, so everyone must not miss it. $BTC #比特币市场波动观察 #加密市场回调