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Bitcoin Spot ETF Trading Volume Data Revealed According to PANews, the trading volume data for Bitcoin spot ETFs on April 29th has been released by HODL15Capital. The data shows that BlackRock's IBIT had a trading volume of $758 million, Grayscale's GBTC had a trading volume of $252 million, Fidelity's FBTC had a trading volume of $215 million, ProShares' BITO had a trading volume of $157 million, ARKB had a trading volume of $77.68 million, and BITB had a trading volume of $41.69 million. This data provides a snapshot of the activity in the Bitcoin spot ETF market on that particular day. It is important to note that these figures can fluctuate significantly from day to day, depending on a variety of factors including market conditions and investor sentiment. The Bitcoin spot ETF market is a relatively new and rapidly evolving sector of the cryptocurrency industry. These ETFs provide a way for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without having to buy and hold the cryptocurrency directly. They are traded on traditional stock exchanges, making them accessible to a wide range of investor.
This Bitcoin Halving Is Different. but Is It 'Priced In'?
This year’s halving — the quadrennial slashing of the amount of new bitcoin {{BTC}} entering into circulation — may be the most important since the first one around 12 years ago. And yet, despite intense interest in the event, its price impact may be more muted this year than previous halvings. Recently launched protocols, like Ordinals, and an increasingly robust mining sector, mean the effect could be relatively soft.
This article is part of CoinDesk’s “Future of Bitcoin” package.
The Bitcoin halving, expected to take place late Friday night or early Saturday (April 20), comes with heightened expectations. In each previous case so far, the halving preceded massive sector-wide rallies. There is an ongoing debate whether the halving is “priced in,” or whether the reduced amount of bitcoin entering into circulation (this time dropping from around 900 BTC per day to 450 BTC) will create a kind of supply shock that will drive prices up (assuming demand for bitcoin remains constant or increases).
There are two economic theories that explain this debate. On one side are those who believe the halving is priced in believe the efficient market theory. They say because the event is known in advance, and everyone shares the same information, it is impossible that bitcoin is currently undervalued. On the other side are those who point to the historic four-year boom and bust cycle in crypto and/or the aforementioned supply-and-demand constraints.
See also: What Bitcoiners Are Saying About the Upcoming Bitcoin Halving
Whatever theory you believe, it’s worth noting that this Bitcoin halving is already markedly different. For one, it’s the first time in Bitcoin history that bitcoin’s price has increased before the event. That’s largely because of the launch of nearly a dozen spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S., which have been vacuuming up bitcoin at unprecedented rates. BlackRock’s bitcoin fund, for instance, has the fifth-fastest inflows of any ETF so far this year.
“There’s more work to do, but the industry has made significant progress in making bitcoin more accessible and easier to use since 2020,” Miles Suter, Bitcoin product lead at Cash App, told CoinDesk in an email. “While the recent rally has been led by institutional investors, with past halvings we’ve seen a positive sentiment shift in the market that attracts new retail traders; I think the cycle will repeat itself.”
What’s different? The institutions
The institutionalization of bitcoin has another element over and above changing the kinds of buyers of bitcoin (or the way they enter the market): It also serves to legitimize the sector. In previous years, the biggest-name buyers of bitcoin were Michael Saylor’s relatively unknown software company MicroStrategy, known bitcoin fan Jack Dorsey’s Block and Elon Musk’s Tesla, which partially walked back its commitment due to environmental concerns.
ETFs changed that forever. This isn’t to suggest that Wall Street doesn’t have its detractors, but it is significant that firms like BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, VanEck and WisdomTree were all clamoring to be first to market in offering a traditional onramp into this nascent digital economy. Bitcoin, once thought to be the Wild West, is becoming normalized — and no one is quite sure what is on the other side.
See also: Bitcoin ETFs Are Driving a Spot Multiplier Effect
“The people, institutions and governments that matter in the big picture are only *just beginning* to wake up to Bitcoin,” Lane Rettig, founder of SpaceMesh and former Ethereum developer, said. “Yes, this process takes a painfully long time, longer than we expect or would like - it's like a dragon slowly awakening, and right now it's just begun to stir.”
It was a point echoed by Nelson Rosario of Rosario Tech Law, who views the halving as just the latest thing to drive attention to Bitcoin. “I think the questions I've seen around this halving somewhat miss the point. The fact is Bitcoin is at all-time high levels. It is a semi-regular news story in the financial press, and yet mass adoption still feels years away,” he said.
Macroeconomic factors
Indeed, analysts at both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs this week published reports dampening the idea that the halving will bring in new buyers. A rallying market leading into the halving may be a way to generate buzz, but it may have also “pulled forward” a portion of “the typical post-halving rally,” JPMorgan analysts Reginald Smith and Charles Pearce wrote.
More importantly, macroeconomic conditions in 2024 are completely different than during the preceding decade of low interest rates and low inflation. Goldman's Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities as well as Equities teams wrote that the higher interest rates today may make high risk investments like crypto less attractive.
It’s a point bolstered by BTC’s performance this week following news the Federal Reserve is reversing course from lower interest rates, which would have brought liquidity into the economy. Price predictions from market analysts vary wildly, with some saying bitcoin could fall to as low as $40,000 post halving or rally above $150,000 by the end of the year.
See also: Bitcoin Rebounds as $150K Target for 2024 Comes in View
Pseudonymous trader Poordart gave a “primitive calculation” adding to the idea that bitcoin could fall following the halving. “Assuming miners sell all mined bitcoin eventually, reducing the average daily number of bitcoin mined from 900 to 450 ($54 million to $27 million at current prices) should have some effect — $189m inflow per week less required just to keep price stable,” he told CoinDesk.
Bitcoin’s 50% price gains this year seem to support the idea that people are willing to take risks — though that doesn’t mean traders shouldn’t proceed with caution. To some extent, the stakes of this halving are even more unclear than ever due to these institutionalization and macroeconomic trends, with some concerned that the halving distracts from the ultimate mission of Bitcoin.
"It is an odd thing to have to treat very, very human-made events as if they are acts of nature or God,” Nathan Schneider, professor of media studies at the University of Colorado Boulder and author of “Governable Spaces: Democratic Design for Online Life.” “I long for the day when network-native economies are designed to serve human flourishing, not arbitrary parameters in code."
Others, like Sarah Meyohas, creator of Bitchcoin and recent Satoshi Nakamoto inscription and hologram series, sees the halving as a symbol of Bitcoin’s resilience. “As we approach Bitcoin's halving, I am moved by the notion that a few people can shape the future of an entire generation through ideas alone.”
How the halving will impact bitcoin miners
A mix of factors — including halving the block reward reward, higher costs, cautious investors and an increasingly crowded mining sector — could be a harsh reality for bitcoin miners after the halving ramps up competition to find the next block.
Historically, the halving has been a boon for the price of bitcoin, helping miners reap a fat profit margin. However, this time, it's different as publicly-traded and private bitcoin miners will have to work harder not just to mine the next block but also to convince the investors and the markets to have faith in their ability to make money.
Heading into this halving, miners are greeted with a cautious tone from investors. For instance, the stocks mining firms Marathon Digital, Hut 8 and Riot Platforms are down roughly 33%, 35% and 46%, respectively, this year. The risk associated with bitcoin mining is seen as greater than alternative mainstream ways to get exposure to crypto, including spot bitcoin ETFs, equities like Coinbase (COIN) and the broad based CoinDesk 20 index, which are less volatile.
Read more: Bitcoin Soared to an All-Time High. So Why Aren't Miners Blasting Off, Too?
To be able to survive and thrive after this halving, miners will need to be efficient, cash flow generating and have proper treasury management in place, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju wrote. He predicts that even if bitcoin remains at the $60,000 price level the current crop of mining machines would become unprofitable to run for many firms — leading to a wave of bankruptcies.
Unless they are able to quickly deploy the latest generation of more efficient machines, Ju said that bitcoin’s price will need to rise to around $80,000 for miners to remain profitable using Bitmain's S19 XP mining machines, the most commonly utilized miners by U.S. companies.
Miners have already started to replace their older-generation machines with newer ASICs. However, having the latest technology may not be enough to appease investors. Miners must prove they can make money by deploying capital efficiently, cutting costs, finding cheaper sources of power and generating positive cash flow for shareholders.
For profitable firms, the post-halving landscape may become a season for mergers and acquisitions. Firms like Galaxy Digital, with its Helios mining farm, the largest liquid-cooled mine in the Northeast, are already buying up less efficient machines as the cheap cost of electricity in West Texas makes it profitable to run outdated chips.
It’s not all doom and gloom. Increasingly, transaction fees are becoming a significant contributor to miners. Historically, miners earned lion's shares of profit from the block rewards. However, with the increasing ways to use the Bitcoin blockchain — most notably through the Ordinals protocol — miners are taking in more through increased fees.
Another option, which some miners have already started to include in their business plan, is to diversify into other sources of revenue, such as repurposing existing data centers to host computing resources for artificial intelligence or cloud computing.
Read more: Bitcoin Halving Is a ‘Show Me the Money’ Moment for Miners
While others see the drop in revenues as potentially existential for miners, some experts think that the effects will be relatively muted compared to prior years. Some, like Colin Harper, researcher and writer for Luxor Technology’s Hashrate Index, thinks that this could be the first year that there is no dip in Bitcoin's hashrate, or the amount of energy contributed to network security, because prices have remained so high.
"Mining margins won't be as good after the halving as they are now, obviously, but they won't be horrendous," Colin Harper, researcher and writer for Luxor Technology’s Hashrate Index, told CoinDesk. "And if the new Runes fungible token protocol makes a significant impact on transaction fees, then margins will be healthy enough to keep miners with higher costs online for longer than not."
Launch of Runes
As mentioned, NFT-like inscriptions, made possible by the launch of the Ordinals protocol, have changed the game for Bitcoin. Not only has it shifted the economic landscape for miners, but it's also renewed developer excitement in the first cryptocurrency, which in recent years was losing out to chains like Ethereum and Solana.
This halving will also see the launch of the Runes protocol, created by Ordinals creator Casey Rodarmor. The system, which will allow tokens to be created, minted and transferred on Bitcoin, is set to launch immediately following the halving with the goal of introducing greater utility to Bitcoin — a mission which started with Rodarmor's prior creation, Ordinals.
Rodarmor has described Runes as creating a venue for meme coins on Bitcoin, only with greater simplicity and efficiency than is currently provided by the BRC-20 token standard. Already, several Runes projects are being planned to coincide with the launch of the new protocol.
Network security
Although, in prior years, halvings did not lead to an economic attack on Bitcoin (like a 51% attack), there are some concerns that lower profitability could lead to enough miners turning off that it becomes theoretically possible. For instance, Bitcoin's hash rate declined 15% after the 2020 halving, 5% after 2016's halving, and 13% after 2012, therefore making Bitcoin less secure.
“The halving is one of the dumbest parts of how Bitcoin was designed. If you're going to reduce subsidy over time, the right way to do it is gradually, rather than shocking the system every four years,” legendary Bitcoin Core developer Peter Todd told CoinDesk. “Fortunately fees are getting higher, so the risk of havings is reducing. Hopefully this one goes alright.”
See also: How the Bitcoin Halving Could Affect Network Security
Rodarmor, and others, see Runes as important to the post-halving Bitcoin ecosystem in that it could bring out additional demand for block space — thereby bolstering the mining economy. Higher fees for validating transactions could however help to offset lower block reward revenue and keep the hash rate higher.
"I wouldn't advocate changing the halving schedule, but if I was going to design Bitcoin from scratch, I probably would not have picked such a fast decay," Rodarmor told CoinDesk. "But you don't go to war with the army you want, you go to war with the army you have. And this is the Bitcoin we have."
Ordinals was contentious among some corners of the Bitcoin community for causing network congestion and soaring user fees, something Runes would also probably face if it proves successful.
"I don't think that the best and highest use case for Bitcoin is Runes; I think that is bitcoin itself as a neutral, value delivery network," Rodarmor said. "However, I do think that it is good to create sources of demand for Bitcoin transactions, because ultimately that helps the security of the network."
If all goes well, it may not matter whether bitcoin is priced in.
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Promotion Period: 2024-03-11 00:00 (UTC) to 2024-03-25 23:59 (UTC)
Join our #HotTrends challenge on Binance Square today and stand a chance to earn a share of the $1,000 FDUSD prize pool in token vouchers rewards, as well as exclusive traffic-boosting perks on Binance Square! Simply create a post on each of the following hot topics: (you must include each topic hashtag and the #HotTrends hashtag in each post!): Guide on Bitcoin Halving and why it matters #Halving Prediction of BTC price in April 2024 #BTC Share your insights on a Ethereum ETF approval #ETF Prediction of when ‘Altcoin season’ will start #AltSeason Create a tutorial on any Binance feature (e.g., Launchpool, Staking, Pay) #BinanceWhat you are most bullish in for Crypto in 2024 #2024 Here’s How to Join: Create new and original content with the topic hashtags and #HotTrends hashtag on Binance Square during the Promotion Period.Ensure each of your post is at least 150 words and receives a minimum of 10 interactions (including likes, comments, shares, and quotes).All creators who complete all 6 topics (with 6 eligible posts) will win a share of the $1,000 FDUSD prize pool.The Top 3 creators with the highest engagement across all eligible posts will receive additional traffic-boosting perks and a shout-out on our Binance Square Profile! Note: Any cases of hashtag abuse will lead to exclusion from the campaign. Terms & Conditions This activity may not be available in your region. Only posts that contain at least 150 words, include the necessary hashtags, and receive at least 10 engagements (the total number of emojis, comments, shares, or quotes) during the Promotion Period will qualify as eligible content pieces.Only original, new content qualifies. Previous submissions are ineligible. Any cases of hashtag abuse will lead to exclusion from the campaign.Content with crypto red packet is not eligible to receive the reward.If creators generate multiple posts under each topic, eligible posts with the most interactions will be the basis for calculating the reward.Prize pool winners will be notified via a push notification under Creator Center > Square Assistant within 15 working days after the activity end. The Top 3 creators with the highest engagements across all eligible posts will be announced via the Binance Square Official Account within 15 working days after the activity end. The FDUSD token voucher rewards will be distributed within 21 working days after the activity ends. Users may check their rewards via Profile > Rewards Hub. The validity period for the token voucher is set at seven days from the day of distribution. Learn how to redeem a voucher.Binance reserves the right to disqualify any account acting against the Binance Square Community Guidelines or Terms and Conditions.Binance reserves the right at any time in its sole and absolute discretion to determine and/or amend or vary these terms and conditions without prior notice, including but not limited to canceling, extending, terminating or suspending this activity, the eligibility terms and criteria, the selection and number of winners, and the timing of any act to be done, and all participants shall be bound by these amendments. Binance reserves the right of final interpretation of this activity.
Large Outflow of Funds in Metis and Increased Trading Volume in Decentralized Exchanges
According to Foresight News, data from 0xScope reveals a significant outflow of funds in Metis today, with approximately 137,000 METIS tokens (worth around $14 million) leaving the market. In addition, the trading volume on decentralized exchanges has surged by 343.41%, and the amount of Bitcoin held by whales has increased by 3.68%.
This large outflow of METIS tokens and the increased trading volume on decentralized exchanges indicate a shift in the market dynamics. The rise in Bitcoin holdings by whales suggests that they are accumulating more of the cryptocurrency, potentially driving up its value. As the market continues to evolve, it will be crucial for investors to monitor these trends and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Predict the price of BTC at 20th April 00:00 (UTC+0) to win up to $10000 of SATS token rewards!
To mark this milestone of Bitcoin Halving, all verified users can complete specific tasks on Binance Square during the Activity Period, and qualify for up to $10,000 of SATS token voucher reward. Activity Period: 2024-03-04 09:00 (UTC) to 2024-04-14 09:00 (UTC)All KYC-verified Binance users who log into their Binance accounts and complete the following tasks during the Activity Period will qualify for the $10,000 of SATS reward. Tasks: Comment your prediction for the price of BTC on 20th April 00:00 (UTC+0) on this post. Share this post on your social media and #HalvingHorizonsThe user with the closest prediction will win $5000. If more than one user shares the same prediction, you’ll share the price pool. AndIf you correctly guessed the price and signed up for a Binance account during the activity period through the shared link of this post or the Binance Square referral link, you can unlock a share of extra $2000 price poolAndIf you correctly guessed the price and completed at least 10 trades during the activity period, you will unlock a share of the extra $3000 price poolEach user can only submit 1 entry. Terms & ConditionsThis activity may not be available in your region. Eligible users must be logged in to their verified Binance accounts whilst completing tasks during the Activity Period in order to qualify.The $10,000 of SATS token voucher rewards pool will be divided equally among all qualified users.Winners will be notified via a push notification under Creator Center > Square Assistant. Voucher rewards will be distributed within 21 working days after the activity ends. Users may check their voucher rewards via Profile > Rewards Hub. The validity period for the voucher is set at seven days from the day of distribution. Learn how to redeem a voucher.Illegally bulk registered accounts or sub-accounts shall not be eligible to participate or receive any rewards. Binance reserves the right to cancel a user’s eligibility in this activity if the account is involved in any behavior that breaches the Binance Square Community Management Guidelines or Binance Square Community Platform Terms and Conditions.Binance reserves the right at any time in its sole and absolute discretion to determine and/or amend or vary these terms and conditions without prior notice, including but not limited to canceling, extending, terminating or suspending this activity, the eligibility terms and criteria, the selection and number of winners, and the timing of any act to be done, and all participants shall be bound by these amendments.Binance reserves the right of final interpretation of this activity.Additional promotion terms and conditions can be accessed here.There may be discrepancies in the translated version of this original article in English. Please reference this original version for the latest or most accurate information where any discrepancies may arise.
El Salvador's Bitcoin Holdings Worth Over $147 Million, Profits Exceed 40%
According to CoinDesk, El Salvador's bitcoin holdings are now valued at over $147 million, representing a profit of more than 40% since the country began purchasing the cryptocurrency in September 2021. If El Salvador were to liquidate its bitcoin holdings today, it would book a profit of nearly $41.6 million, or over 40%, as stated by the country's president in a post on social media. The president also highlighted that the main source of additional bitcoin for the country is its citizenship program, which offers expedited citizenship to those who make a BTC 'donation' to the government. However, El Salvador has no intention of selling its bitcoin holdings.
The country's bitcoin holdings were accumulated at an average price of $44,292, and its treasury currently holds 2,381 bitcoins. El Salvador has also experienced a surge in its bonds over the past year, with debt due in 2052 trading above 80 cents on the dollar, according to FactSet data. President Bukele won re-election in early February with more than 85% of the vote. Bitcoin is currently trading above $61,000, according to CoinDesk Indices data.