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原文参照
速報：米国 SEC がスポット#BitcoinETF を正式に承認しました。
暗号通貨にとって記念すべき瞬間です。
以下は、承認されたスポット ETF #Bitcoin のティッカーです:
1. $BTCW
2. $GBTC
3. $IBIT
4. $EZBC
5. $BTCO
6. $BRRR
7. $DEFI
8. $HODL
9. $FBTC
10. $BITB
11. $ARKB
暗号通貨にとって記念すべき瞬間です。
以下は、承認されたスポット ETF #Bitcoin のティッカーです:
1. $BTCW
2. $GBTC
3. $IBIT
4. $EZBC
5. $BTCO
6. $BRRR
7. $DEFI
8. $HODL
9. $FBTC
10. $BITB
11. $ARKB
原文参照
米国労働市場の要約:
1. 過去 11 件の雇用報告のうち 10 件が下方修正
2. 2023 年の雇用増加の約 25% が最終的に下方修正
3. 12 月の雇用増加の 25% は政府雇用
4. 12 月のパートタイム雇用は 762,000 人増加、フルタイム雇用は 150 万人減少
5. 2023 年のフルタイム雇用増加は横ばい、パートタイム雇用は急増
6. インフレ調整後の収入は 2021 年の水準を約 3% 下回る
それでも、当初の雇用数は予想を上回り、下方修正される前に見出しを飾った。
これは「ソフトランディング」と言えるのだろうか。
$BTC $ETH $ETH
1. 過去 11 件の雇用報告のうち 10 件が下方修正
2. 2023 年の雇用増加の約 25% が最終的に下方修正
3. 12 月の雇用増加の 25% は政府雇用
4. 12 月のパートタイム雇用は 762,000 人増加、フルタイム雇用は 150 万人減少
5. 2023 年のフルタイム雇用増加は横ばい、パートタイム雇用は急増
6. インフレ調整後の収入は 2021 年の水準を約 3% 下回る
それでも、当初の雇用数は予想を上回り、下方修正される前に見出しを飾った。
これは「ソフトランディング」と言えるのだろうか。
$BTC $ETH $ETH
翻訳
BREAKING: "Buy now, pay later" sales hit a record $16.6 billion over the last 2 months, up 14% compared to 2022.
Online holiday shopping sales hit a record $222.1 billion in the last 2 months of 2023.
This is up 4.9% compared to last year and was largely driven by "buy now, pay later" financing.
1 in 4 Americans have now utilized "buy now, pay later" financing.
Typically, these loans do not require credit checks and come with high interest rates.
How can this end well?
Online holiday shopping sales hit a record $222.1 billion in the last 2 months of 2023.
This is up 4.9% compared to last year and was largely driven by "buy now, pay later" financing.
1 in 4 Americans have now utilized "buy now, pay later" financing.
Typically, these loans do not require credit checks and come with high interest rates.
How can this end well?
翻訳
#The biggest consensus trade in the market?
Short bond yields.
62% of institutional investors expect bond yields to fall, pushing bond prices higher.
Just 6 months ago, only 10% of institutional investors held this view.
To put this in perspective, even in 2008 and 2020, we barely saw 40% of institutional investors expect bond yields to fall.
All as markets are pricing in double the amount of rate cuts compared to Fed guidance.
When the majority of people hold a view, it likely means that view is priced-in.
Today, the 10-year note yield is nearing 4.00% and a break higher would be huge.
In addition, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the market will pose a high risk for cryptocurrencies. Do not forget that cryptocurrencies are shaped according to world markets. $BTC $ETH $BNB
Short bond yields.
62% of institutional investors expect bond yields to fall, pushing bond prices higher.
Just 6 months ago, only 10% of institutional investors held this view.
To put this in perspective, even in 2008 and 2020, we barely saw 40% of institutional investors expect bond yields to fall.
All as markets are pricing in double the amount of rate cuts compared to Fed guidance.
When the majority of people hold a view, it likely means that view is priced-in.
Today, the 10-year note yield is nearing 4.00% and a break higher would be huge.
In addition, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the market will pose a high risk for cryptocurrencies. Do not forget that cryptocurrencies are shaped according to world markets. $BTC $ETH $BNB
翻訳
Key Events This Week:
1. Markets Closed, Happy New Year! - Monday
2. ISM Manufacturing data - Wednesday
3. JOLTs Jobs data - Wednesday
4. Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday
5. ISM Non-Manufacturing data - Friday
6. December Jobs Report - Friday
Short but busy week to kick off 2024.
1. Markets Closed, Happy New Year! - Monday
2. ISM Manufacturing data - Wednesday
3. JOLTs Jobs data - Wednesday
4. Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday
5. ISM Non-Manufacturing data - Friday
6. December Jobs Report - Friday
Short but busy week to kick off 2024.
翻訳
2023 Total Returns...
Bitcoin $BTC : +152%
Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: +55%
S&P 500 $SPY: +26%
Developed ex-US $VEA: +18%
Small Caps $IWM: +17%
Gold $GLD: +13%
REITs $VNQ: +12%
Emerging Markets $IEMG: +12%
US Bonds $AGG: +6%
Cash $BIL: +5%
Commodities $DBC: -6%
Volatility $VXX: -72%
Bitcoin $BTC : +152%
Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: +55%
S&P 500 $SPY: +26%
Developed ex-US $VEA: +18%
Small Caps $IWM: +17%
Gold $GLD: +13%
REITs $VNQ: +12%
Emerging Markets $IEMG: +12%
US Bonds $AGG: +6%
Cash $BIL: +5%
Commodities $DBC: -6%
Volatility $VXX: -72%
翻訳
A look back on 2023 in the market:
Heading into this year, the average forecast showed the S&P 500 closing today at ~4,000.
Currently, the index is at 4,777, just under 1% away from a new all-time high.
In other words, we are approximately 20% above Wall Street's average year-end target.
Interestingly, just two months ago, the S&P 500 was trading at 4,100, roughly in line with the average year-end forecast.
These last two months caught institutional investors completely off guard.
The unexpected change is attributed to the "Fed pivot."
To succeed in the crypto markets, you can't do it without examining global markets. Follow me for more. #sp500 $BTC
Heading into this year, the average forecast showed the S&P 500 closing today at ~4,000.
Currently, the index is at 4,777, just under 1% away from a new all-time high.
In other words, we are approximately 20% above Wall Street's average year-end target.
Interestingly, just two months ago, the S&P 500 was trading at 4,100, roughly in line with the average year-end forecast.
These last two months caught institutional investors completely off guard.
The unexpected change is attributed to the "Fed pivot."
To succeed in the crypto markets, you can't do it without examining global markets. Follow me for more. #sp500 $BTC
翻訳
Global bond index, up 9.5% in the past 2 months, marks the best gain in history, surpassing December 2008. Market futures show an additional 150 basis points in rate cut expectations since November 1st.
Unprecedentedly, markets project 6 interest rate cuts in just 2 months. Bond markets erase all 2023 losses in 7 weeks.
Describing this as a "Fed pivot" is an understatement.
The risk for crypto and other markets lies in increased volatility, potentially impacting prices.
#DXY #SP500 $BTC $ETH $BNB
Unprecedentedly, markets project 6 interest rate cuts in just 2 months. Bond markets erase all 2023 losses in 7 weeks.
Describing this as a "Fed pivot" is an understatement.
The risk for crypto and other markets lies in increased volatility, potentially impacting prices.
#DXY #SP500 $BTC $ETH $BNB
翻訳
Over The Last 2 Months:
1. Futures have added 140 basis points of rate cuts
2. The 10-year note yield is down 120 basis points
3. Average 30-year mortgage rates are down 130 basis points
4. The S&P 500 is up 16% in just over 40 trading days
5. US Dollar Index has fallen 7% on Fed pivot talks
All while core inflation is still roughly double the Fed's 2% inflation target.
This can't be what the Fed wanted.
Expectations must be managed or inflation will return.
Follow us
$BTC $ETH $BNB
1. Futures have added 140 basis points of rate cuts
2. The 10-year note yield is down 120 basis points
3. Average 30-year mortgage rates are down 130 basis points
4. The S&P 500 is up 16% in just over 40 trading days
5. US Dollar Index has fallen 7% on Fed pivot talks
All while core inflation is still roughly double the Fed's 2% inflation target.
This can't be what the Fed wanted.
Expectations must be managed or inflation will return.
Follow us
$BTC $ETH $BNB