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MarketMaestro1
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MarketMaestro1
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$BTC #BTC US M2 and Global M2 are increasing, but why isn’t Bitcoin rising? I’ve always said that Bitcoin moves in correlation with US M2, separate from the rest of the world, and I still stand by that view. If you look at the chart, you can see the direct correlation between them. Right now, I’d say Bitcoin is entirely tied to the Nasdaq and U.S. macroeconomy, especially through ETFs. Real M2 is nominal M2 adjusted for inflation—in other words, it reflects the actual purchasing power of money. Even if inflation is low (as it currently is in the U.S.), if the growth rate of nominal M2 doesn’t outpace inflation, real M2 won’t increase. For real M2 to grow, the increase in nominal M2 needs to support both inflation and real economic growth. If the U.S. economy is growing slowly or in a recession: The increase in money supply might not be enough to boost real economic activity (production, consumption, etc.). This can cause real M2 to remain flat, even if nominal M2 is rising. In the economy, the money supply (M) multiplied by the velocity of money (V) equals the price level (P) times real output (Y), or MV = PY. If nominal M2 is increasing but the velocity of money is falling: The money isn’t being spent enough in the economy to translate into real economic activity. Even though US M2 is rising, real M2 isn’t increasing, and with uncertainty in the U.S. macroeconomy, I believe Bitcoin is moving in lockstep with stocks in response to this situation. Global M2 keeps growing, but if things don’t improve in the U.S., the rest of the world won’t recover either, and that’s why Bitcoin isn’t moving. That’s my 2 cent
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$MSTR #MSTR Breaking above the green line is technically significant. If it can’t, it’ll tire out and lose momentum. If it does, it’ll head toward breaking the red diagonal resistance. If it pulls that off, it could climb to the dead cat zone. That’s where it’ll make its real decision. Those are the two possibilities right now.
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$IONQ #IONQ It’s been holding up strong during this period. I read some important business news about it the other day. If it can break above the red diagonal resistance gets taken out, and the first target would be the dead cat zone What it does there will be the real key.
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$BTC / $DXY It recovered strongly from the neckline and is performing better than the DXY. It’s formed a double bottom for now, but whether it can break past the dead cat zone is key
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Despite the data coming in much better than expected, the market isn’t thrilled because it’s worried the Fed behind the curve
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最新ニュース
米国株式市場はテクノロジーと暗号通貨株の牽引で上昇
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米国の消費者信頼感が低下し、インフレ期待が高まる
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ProShares UltraShort Ether ETF、2025年のETFパフォーマンスを大幅な利益でリード
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FRBのウィリアムズ：関税はインフレを増加させ、経済成長を鈍化させる可能性がある
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暗号通貨犯罪者がブロックチェーン間で検出を回避する傾向が高まっている
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